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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Vosilla who wrote (124572)	5/21/2008 7:12:38 PM
From: Giordano Bruno	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Can you see this? Message 24609893

To: John Vosilla who wrote (124572)	5/22/2008 8:13:42 AM
From: ChanceIs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

>>>the mother of all recessions since 1973-74 is down the pike once we've adjusted to this new world order and the deflationists pack it in<<< I think that the current recession has to grow into the requisite severe purge. Notice that when the IBs are "recapitalizing" they are going to the equity and not debt the markets. Who would want to buy debt in this highly inflationary climate??? I know, I know....the Federal Reserve. The US has NEVER, NEVER, NEVER experienced an oil shock w/o a rather severe recession. We have been in an oil shock for the last three years. I think that the only thing that staved the recession off has been importing deflation from China, and "Easy Al" printing like there was no tomorrow. I think that not too many countries are interested in holding much more US debt. The yield curve was inverted for a long time. That is not necessarily a 100% cause for a recession, but i think some 80% of the time it does lead to recession. Von Mises suggests that recessions come from misallocation of resources. No one would suggest that we should have been playing the housing lotto instead of building energy infrastructure, and I am not talking windmills, I am talking nukes. There will be localized depressions - housing, automobiles manufacture, and airlines are obvious. Unemployment there will lead to broader malaise as discretionary consumption and tax revenues drop. I think we are in new territory. Leaders have often taken the path of war to stimulate the economy. Its is a great make-work project - moral considerations notwithstanding. I remember being taught in high school that the Great Depression really ended when WWII required industrial expansion. Problem today is that we have been stimulating the economy with the war option since 2003. Haven't we been to that well once (or twice) too often recently?? I know, I know. Iran is on the table. The Chris Martenson "Crash Course" lectures were very interesting: chrismartenson.com I hadn't recalled the necessity for growth which new debt requires - namely that the interest on the debt has to come from future growth - or real wealth creation. He comments that ...pick a number...ten years ago, one new unit of debt might produce .9 new units of wealth. Today that number might be down to .1 units of new wealth. I think that the US is all tapped out. We need to get back tot he business of creating wealth. An obvious place is energy production or conservation means.