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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (9479)	5/23/2008 10:27:42 AM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

What's going to stop price is a demand reduction. Not going to have much demand reduction so long as developing countries, such as China and India, continue to subsidize gasoline.. And since, in most of these countries, except democratic India, their non-democratic governments use fuel subsidies as a means of "placating" their masses, it will be pretty difficult for them to withdraw these "entitlements". And the question REALLY IS whether future oil production increases can keep up with global demand increases. We might reduce our oil consumption, but we're relatively wealthy enough to finance the technologies required (Hybrids.. etc).. These "smoke-stack" economies that are developing outside of the US will be far more energy intensive than our own. But just from a Technical Analysis perspective, it would seem that oil was heading for $150/bbl, even if completely unjusified. There's just no resistance overhead, yet the price hasn't yet fully gone parabolic in a blow-off top that would clearly indicate sector wide distribution (pending additional data over the next week). Hawk

To: robert b furman who wrote (9479)	5/28/2008 10:49:28 AM
From: Terry Whitman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 33421

>What's going to stop price is a demand reduction.< >>The U.S. Department of Transportation said Monday Americans drove 11 billion miles less in March 2008 than a year earlier, marking the first time estimated March travel on public roads fell since 1979. That 4.3% decline is the sharpest year-on-year drop for any month in the history of the agency's reporting, which dates back to 1942. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), a unit of the U.S. Department of Energy, U.S. gasoline demand has fallen 0.6% so far in 2008. The trend began in October of 2007, and gas consumption has trailed year-ago levels in every month since, except for a very slight bump up in November. As a result, the EIA is forecasting the first year-over-year decline in U.S. gasoline demand since 1991.<< money.cnn.com Looks like we're already there- at least in the U.S.!