5 Questions That Could Determine the Winner
By Reid Wilson
Barack Obama and John McCain are perhaps only days away from commencing a rush to the general election that could be the third nail-biting presidential contest in a row. At the moment, neither can be considered a favorite -- Obama leads the latest RCP National Average by 4.5 points, while McCain leads the latest RCP Averages in crucial swing states like Ohio and Florida.
Each has their strengths and weaknesses: McCain starts the race as the better-defined candidate, but he may be too old. Obama will have more money to spend, but he may be too young. The race, in the end, will come down to five questions that will determine each candidate's reach, the campaigns' political skills and a set of intangibles that both will try, and probably fail, to control.
1) How Will Older Voters Respond To McCain?
While recent weeks have shown an increased emphasis on a racial divide in the Democratic primary, an underappreciated gap has been generational. Hillary Clinton has, in every contest, done much better among older voters than among younger voters, with whom Obama excels. If McCain can exploit that generational gap, he could find a niche Obama is simply unable to fill: Older voters cast ballots more frequently, giving McCain a bigger natural base. But whether those voters see McCain as uniquely able to appreciate their concerns or if they have doubts because of their own experience growing older is the true test. If the former, McCain will have his valuable constituency. If the latter, they could sink him.
McCain will have to prove, fairly or not, that he's not too old to serve as Commander in Chief, and the toughest sell may be to people his generation and older. For that reason, the most important person to McCain could be his mother, Roberta. At 96 years old, she has proven humorous, lively and proof positive that her son, 71, has the genes to stay around for another forty or fifty years (Her son often repeats a story about her trip to Europe, in which a rental car company refused to rent to someone her age; so she bought a car and drove it around herself).
2) Will Younger Voters Turn Out?
On the other side of the generational spectrum, it has often been said that there is a name for candidates who rely on the youth vote: They're called losers. That's because no matter how excited younger voters get about a candidate, they are least likely to show up to the polls and the most easily disillusioned. Obama has shown a penchant that others, most recently Howard Dean, have not, in that he appears actually capable of turning those voters out.
Young voters could make a difference in a handful of states that prove critical to Obama's November chances. But he will need an extraordinary turnout operation to get them to the polls; it is little wonder, then, that his campaign has been so active in early caucus states, building a field organization they hope can work in November.
While young voters have played an important role in Obama's victories in key states, most notably Iowa, the campaign is quick to point out that they view first-time voters as the "icing on the cake," not as the foundation on which they're building their coalition. But as Obama finds himself having difficulty luring Reagan Democrats into his camp, younger voters will become all the more crucial, and Obama will have to make sure he can get them to the polls.
3) How Does McCain Do At The Convention?
Since political conventions became televised events in 1964, the average candidate benefits from a 6.1-point post-convention bounce, according to a Gallup analysis after the 2004 conventions. But bounces aren't guaranteed. That year, John Kerry got a tiny bounce, unlike in 1992, when Bill Clinton bounced up sixteen points.
This year, both of those numbers could be repeated. Obama, the gifted orator, could benefit from a big bounce after an exhibit of rhetorical brilliance. McCain is less gifted at delivering prepared remarks. While his talents in town hall meetings and in debates are evident, he often reads his prepared speeches, which seem forced. Given the prime time coverage each address will receive, it is likely Obama will get a much bigger bounce than McCain does, vaulting him into a post-Labor Day lead heading into the planned three presidential debates.
But that's not necessarily a dagger for the McCain campaign. He runs better from behind anyway, and aside from Mike Huckabee he was probably the best Republican on the primary season's many crowded debate stages. Still, coming out of one's own convention trailing could prompt a problematic round of stories in the press, so the pressure will be on McCain to deliver a stellar convention speech.
4) Will Obama's Golden Boy Image Hold Up?
Barack Obama is post-racial, post-partisan and completely above reproach, as his campaign sees it. Clinton has had fun with that image, comparing it to a heavenly revelation ("The sky will open. The lights will come down. Celestial choirs will be singing and everyone will know we should do the right thing and the world will be perfect," she joked to an audience at Rhode Island College in late February), but it's a dangerous position for any candidate to start from. The higher a candidate's pedestal, the harder the fall when he or she comes crashing down.
Obama's troubles with Reagan Democrats and Appalachian voters began in earnest after revelations about some of the more radical speeches his former pastor delivered in his Chicago church. Three months after those controversial sermons came to light, Obama is on the brink of the Democratic nomination, but for someone flying so high, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright has proven a serious weight. Throw Tony Rezko and William Ayers, names that will resurface in the general election, and Obama will have to weather at least a few storms ahead.
If Obama becomes just another politician, his path to the White House will be placed in serious jeopardy. But if he retains his gravity-defying image, he could remain as untouchable to McCain as he was, until the Wright fiasco, to Clinton. McCain will do all he can to help Obama down from that pedestal.
5) Who Wins The Timing Battle?
John McCain would not be the Republican nominee if his campaign's tremendous meltdown had happened a few months later, nor would he be where he is without having benefited from Rudy Giuliani pulling out of New Hampshire when he did, or a thousand other quirks of timing. Obama would probably not be atop the Democratic Party had Wright come to light a month or two earlier, or if John Edwards had stayed in the race hoping to influence a contested convention, or if he had not begun his meteoric ascension in Iowa at the state party's Jefferson Jackson Dinner in November.
In short, both candidates have been incredibly lucky in terms of their timing. Heading into the October stretch run, Clinton has made the case in the Democratic Primary that Obama, unknown to many general election voters, is susceptible to a late and crippling surprise. McCain, too, has stumbled this year, most recently in what some advisers think is an overreaction to revelations that some staffers have embarrassing links to unsavory organizations through their previous or ongoing careers as lobbyists.
While both candidates have shown remarkable success when running from behind, this year, perhaps more than most recent contests, could come down to the dumb luck of timing.
Reid Wilson is an associate editor and writer for RealClearPolitics. He can be reached at reid@realclearpolitics.com
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