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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (35114)	5/24/2008 1:40:28 AM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217588

Hi, Jay. I took profits in oil today, closing all positions, after believing not more than a couple of days ago that oil was impregnable. Careful checking of the facts suggested that demand and supply are in rough alignment, with supply a bit tight, but no shortages, no gas lines, nothing too much out of the ordinary, If anything, slowing growth in the developed economies and energy conservation suggested lessened demand for the rest of the year. That being the case, how is the rise from 90 to 135 in the space of a mere 4 months to be explained? Speculation, in a word. A heightened level of speculation which nearly always ends badly. So I sold, took profits which are likely to be less than what braver souls may make. However, I won't be holding a bag like I think others may when the speculative mania ends. This is a hard, tough market, one which is very difficult for me to approach with any confidence other than in the fact that fundamentals are a disaster. I've noticed two serious volte faces on my part in the last couple of weeks, one involving the ditching of a notion that things were becoming more bullish which I quickly and thankfully abandoned, escaping with a tiny profit, and the other being today's closing of oil, which I ended in toto today before the speculative mania ceases and the headaches begin. Doing these kinds of turnabouts is hard, but one must be nimble, quick, willing to change directions quickly. If I had not gotten out of SPY and QQQQ quickly, I would have been scorched. Still, there is a limit to nimbleness. Perhaps it is time to stay away a bit, recharge, refresh, rethink.