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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: coachbobknight who wrote (125126)	5/24/2008 9:36:47 AM
From: Think4Yourself	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

I think you may be looking at the oil/gas situation without taking into account some critical aspects. The stocks of product (i.e. gasoline) are dropping for two reasons. One is the refiners estimate of how much is needed, which already takes into account their estimates of American consumer consumption. If Americans consume less the refiners want to process less, and if the refiners expect product price hikes are temporary they will sell as much stock as they can and rebuild later when prices are lower. The other factor is the price of inputs. Because the price of oil is so high now they don't want to buy any more than they have to. The net result is that refiners WANT their stocks to be as low as possible right now, for economic reasons. They sell off any non-critical stocks at high prices, stocks they produced at lower prices. They hope to rebuild those stocks later when oil is hopefully cheaper. It's the smart thing to do. The stocks of inputs (i.e. oil) are dropping because nobody who expects the price to fall wants to hold any more of the stuff now than they have to. Unfortunately the rest of the world still IS increasing demand at the moment, although this appears to be changing right now. A large part of that reason is the energy subsidies of China and India. Our consuming less does not necessarily mean the world is suddenly oversupplied, so oil prices will not necessarily come down just because Americans are consuming less. Net result is that further drawdowns in inventory should not surprise anyone, even though Americans are FINALLY starting to become a little intelligent about their consumption. It should also be no surprise if oil prices continue to climb despite reduced consumption in America. One definite effect of high energy prices will be a huge drag on the economy. $4 gas, and the associated prices for other forms of energy, will do do to our economy what a thug with a baseball bat would do to a car.

To: coachbobknight who wrote (125126)	5/24/2008 12:36:34 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

This week could've been the script for the rest of the year. Pretty much everything down, commodities, stocks, bonds, the works. The dollar is in a trading range between 71-74.5. I think it stays there, unless the Fed starts raising rates (which they won't, at least until the elections). Margin requirements will come up, but I'm not clear on the time frame for that. The Nymex has been pretty resistant, they're afraid of losing the international business (which they would, at least in energy). But political pressure IS building, eventually they'll hit 50%. Any higher than that and you won't have a functioning futures market. Ultimately crude prices are gonna depend on the ability for imports to keep the U.S. market supplied. Watch the import figures, I think they're the key.

To: coachbobknight who wrote (125126)	5/27/2008 12:22:29 PM
From: $Mogul	Respond to of 306849

Got news for you..ECB is not cutting. ecb is forced to begin cutting

To: coachbobknight who wrote (125126)	6/9/2008 4:52:22 PM
From: Johnny_Blaze_420	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 306849

Oil short coming up soon... Fed has hands tied with half it's book lent out and unable to cut rates anymore. Inflation is biggest concern. I anticipate a hike after the election. The hawkish tone will continue this week... i've seen 30% drops in listing prices over the last 10 months and you still need a 30% down payment to even qualify for the places and that is with 6 figure income... i doubt we see a bottom in R/E for at least 12-18 months. Commercial cap rates just starting to inch up. If we have some trouble getting non recourse loans with out balance sheet, i can only imagine what the small guy is going through. The bond insurer downgrade didn't get too much press but you can see the underacpitlized banks taking it pretty hard. We'll see a regional bank fail within 60 days imo, probably right after the quarter ends... Staying short on every bounch unless we break 13k and 1440 and stay there... hope all is well.