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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: elmatador who wrote (35120)	5/24/2008 11:39:10 AM
From: THE ANT	Read Replies (8) \| Respond to of 217737

El mat,here in the US everyone thinks things are so bad, but I just see things going back to their long term trend relative to wages and the dollar coming off a ridiculous valuation it never should have reached.I tell people,forget the last 20 years as it was not reality but a fantasy related to the credit bubble.Houses in Brazil and other developing countries should have never reached one tenth the price of the same house in the US-that was not reality.Remember, I told you that in 1974 houses in Brasil were the same price or more expensive than the US.The house across the street from me in Maryland just went from 450K to 350K and the equivalent houe in Brazil from 45K to about 170K.The US is /will be competitive with the rest of the world.I still feel the Asian financial crises was more related to the US credit bubble than their mistakes.If the US bubble had burst sooner Asia would have gone along just fine even with their higher value currencies of that time.Look at Brasil.With Brazilian inflation of the last 12 years the Real at 1.65/$ is the same as Real 1/$ of about 12 years ago,but Brazil is doing well all the same.Our credit bubble distorted the whole world.It is not the emerging mkts and commodities in a bubble it is everything going back to its long term relative relationship.My guess is that oil relative to US income is back where it was 15-20 years ago.Developing country housing vs US income the same as 20-30 years ago.US housing and gold going back to prior relationship to US family income.The US consumer got caught in the fantasy and is paying the price.Those who could see it did well.For years I told friends to sell ther 400K home and buy 10 equivalent 40K homes in Brazil and retire.I know of none who did.People avoided me as my talk depressed them. I think having the world reserve currency is a negative.No country can have this forever without being corrupted.Be careful in Brazil as natural resources corrupt also.If things continue this way for awhile Brazil will avoid some of the hard changes that need to be made.Communisum failed because of mans very nature and given time reserve currencies and natural resources will bring out the worst in any country for the same reasons So,back to the US.Our pain is only return to normal size from a place we should have never been.The reserve currency and our politicians have helped make us gluttons for consumption and that must change.Wealth is to be gained by hard work and savings.I tell fellow Americans to throw out most of what they learned in the last 20-25 years,when it comes to the US economy ,as it is was not real.And nationalism,it remains the last refuge of the scoundrel.We(the world) remain so very primative and tribal.I just listened to a great lecture series on language.We were made to have floating languages and accents to help us quickly differentiate from other tribes and peoples.You cant fight your own tribalism without knowing it exists