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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Raymond who wrote (77346)	5/27/2008 1:34:03 PM
From: SD_bound	Respond to of 196654

CITI GROUP NOTE ON CHINA TELECOM: TD-SCDMA Expect some short-term weakness in the stock pending clarity on asymmetric regulation. Language in the official restructuring release (on inter-operator roaming) could imply regulatory control to limit CM's dominance. In the official restructuring release, the government has suggested operators allow inter-operator roaming at a government-set rate. This could have significant implications if it means smaller operators can access CM's networks. No detail is available on implementation of these inter-operator roaming rates (limited or nationwide). Will TD-SCDMA risk resurface? 3G licenses are expected to be issued soon after restructuring. CM's parent company is running extensive TD-SCDMA trials now - a technology lagging WCDMA and CDMA2000 in efficiency and scale today. Any onerous rollout commitments will be a risk, excluding which we do not see this as a debilitating worry. The extent and severity of asymmetric regulation has always been a binary risk to the investment case; the extent and severity of any such regulation will no doubt test the longer-term investment case for CM. That said, restructuring or not, 2008E earnings are in the bag and it will probably be only well into 2009 before the higher competition impact on CM post restructuring becomes clearer. Watch this space.

To: Raymond who wrote (77346)	5/27/2008 1:39:58 PM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 196654

I guess it's considerable risk that it will not be any CDMA push at all.In that case it will be 2 TD-SCDMA or 2 WCDMA licenses. I wouldnt rule out anything in China. I will say this though, if the point of the restructuring is to introduce more competition into the Chinese mobile market, it doesnt make much sense to hobble China Telecom with TD-SCDMA. The combination of TD-SCDMA with Unicom's CDMA network would be a mess. If CDMA2000 is ruled out, I think a 2nd WCDMA license would be more likely than a 2nd TD-SCDMA license....but again, who the hell knows? Slacker

To: Raymond who wrote (77346)	5/27/2008 2:47:01 PM
From: JeffreyHF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 196654

Why would China Telecom pay billions for Unicom's CDMA network, just to scrap it? If TD-SCDMA were their (forced) gambit, they'd simply build a greenfield system. Huawei, ZTE, Hisense, HTC, and other "domestic" manufacturers stand to make a lot of money from CDMA 2000, in China, India, other areas of Asia, and elsewhere. (No matter how it shakes out, Qualcomm has signed the major Chinese manufacturers to "world standard rate" WCDMA licenses, and they also are selling millions of chipsets to them.)