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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ryan Hess who wrote (31066)	5/29/2008 1:42:01 AM
From: Madharry	Respond to of 78715

thanks for posting those informative links. of course this is just reinforcing my own beliefs. its evident that part of the rush toward commodity investing is to protect investors from the debasement of the US dollar. Investors/speculators should be free to maintain their wealth in any asset they choose. It has prompted me to invest/speculate in oil/natural gas , mining, and real estate companies. Why should anyone keep their money in treasuries and earn negative real interest rate returns? The inverse bond fund I have chosen is TBT a fairly new etf, but there are others out there. I just dont have names at my fingertips. Let me know which one you decide on, just check the expense ratios before you buy in as some of them were surprisingly high. I currently have about 4% of my portfolio in it. I am wary of financials unless there is a solid moat and you have a good handle on the likely future charge offs. I dont see why WFC would be immune to the problemes facing other large banks. But then again I dont have the same access to senior management that Buffett has, perhaps they are unusually smart bankers.

To: Ryan Hess who wrote (31066)	5/29/2008 9:17:19 AM
From: gcrispin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78715

There will be endless debate on how much speculation is priced into 130 dollar oil. The latest report from US Energy Dept. adds some twists to the story, including the suggestion that tremendous demand for oil in the Middle East is cutting the amount they are exporting. Below is an excerpt. Fresh data from the U.S. Department of Energy show the amount of petroleum products shipped by the world's top oil exporters fell 2.5% last year, despite a 57% increase in prices, a trend that appears to be holding true this year as well. There are several reasons behind the net-export decline. Soaring profits from high-price crude have fueled a boom in oil demand in Saudi Arabia and across the Middle East, leaving less oil for export. At the same time, aging fields and sluggish investments have caused exports to drop significantly in Mexico, Norway and, most recently, Russia. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries also cut production early last year and didn't move to boost supplies again until last fall. In all, according to the Energy Department figures, net exports by the world's top 15 suppliers, which account for 45% of all production, fell by nearly a million barrels to 38.7 million barrels a day last year. The drop would have been steeper if not for heightened output in less-developed countries such as Angola and Libya, whose economies have yet to become big energy consumers. online.wsj.com

To: Ryan Hess who wrote (31066)	5/29/2008 9:35:23 AM
From: Grommit	Respond to of 78715

good links. but i do not understand it when (in the masters link) he says "speculators have stockpiled (via the futures market)the equivalent of 1.1 billion barrels of oil." i have always thought that buyers of futures commodities could have little effect because they never take delivery. (except for the airlines and others when hedging fuel costs, in a sense.) so i always thought that i did not understand something. they may hold a contract for awhile, but they eventually close the position (and open another). but then, recently... i cannot find the link or quote, but even warren buffet agreed with me recently by saying that the hedge funds(?) have little effect on corn or other commodity prices because they do not stockpile commodities, as far as he knows. why in the world should we fill the strategic oil reserve when all the country needs to do is buy futures contracts? :o)