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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ggamer who wrote (94651)	5/30/2008 5:56:05 PM
From: bart13	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Is the main reason for this upcoming forecasted price increase due to cattle feed costs going up? If the answer is yes, then why no impact so far? Please bear in mind that I am not familiar with this commodity nor I know much about the historical prices. My main reasons are a combination of just plain inflation, plus the repeating pattern from the '70s, plus trading the trend break in the tangible asset bull direction. Inflation by itself represents on average about 80% of all price increases during the last century - in combination with whether we're in a paper or hard/tangible asset bull market. This chart from my long term inflation page at nowandfutures.com will tell you both one of the places where that $2.40 target came from and also the pattern, and of course how hugely undervalued cattle are. As far as the feed costs, they sure have increased and that's part of it too but many other costs involved in cattle raising have also increased. I think its trading partially on energy, and the combination of it, inflation, how undervalued cattle is, the desire of other emerging countries for beef, and the expected impact of higher corn prices are what's driving it now.