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Politics : View from the Center and Left -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bridge Player who wrote (70112)	6/1/2008 6:48:43 PM
From: Dale Baker	Respond to of 541977

Does that suggest: That you think McCain is too much of an orthodox conservative to win? That not enough orthodox conservatives will vote for him to enable him to win? That he would win big if he were more moderate? That a moderate Republican would win a large electoral victory (as in 1988, your example year) against a moderate Democrat? That Democrats nominate candidates who are too far to the left to win against a moderate Republican? Curious to know what it is that you are suggesting about the relative electability of moderate or mildly conservative Republican candidates vis-a-vis Democratic candidates. 1. No, McCain could certainly win with 50-53% of the total vote on a good day, if Obama stumbles before November. 2. That is possible given his current dilemma of trying to please the right and the center simultaneously. 3. He would be more competitive in some swing states running as a moderate. This election will be decided in a dozen key swing states, not the red state base. I doubt McCain could win big in the current climate. If he had very different positions on Iraq and tax cuts and didn't pay homage to the Bush base people he used to revile, he would have much more support among independents who admired him in 2000. 4 and 5. Bush, Sr. cleaned Dukakis' clock as a relative moderate running against a northeastern liberal. Bush, Jr. barely beat Kerry in a similar matchup. Hard to say about a moderate against a moderate, the last such pair was Ford and Carter in 1976, which was very close. Overall, in a climate that is far more fed up with blatant conservatives, moderation would help McCain. This is not 1980 when liberalism was almost dead from exhaustion, and a big conservative wave could take hold through Reagan.