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To: bob zagorin who wrote (42773)	6/2/2008 1:40:54 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 57684

Cigs doesn't work and silicon has other issues beyond costs of material. The competitor for FSLRs thin films will be somebody that can tighten up the supply chain like FSLR has been able to do (only one supplier, them). Silicon by its nature has a fragmented supply chain that is the problem. Every local yokle has opinions on solar now but the game was devised and played in 2006 and 2007. Now its just a bunch of know nothings on yahoo stock boards and here. FSLR is so far ahead in terms of costs and production capacity it is going to be very difficult to catch up for this generation of companies. Forget Silicon for now.

To: bob zagorin who wrote (42773)	6/2/2008 8:26:47 PM
From: Eric	Respond to of 57684

Bob I believe things will change really fast in this space in the next 4 years or so. FSLR has the lead in cost per watt and that really counts in free field deployment (utilities). It looks like we will have a glut of silicon on the market in the next year and a half and all of the silicon based PV plays will face some severe consolidation going forward. The interesting thing will be to see what the U.S. does to support alternatives in the next 12 months. That could really change the dynamics of the solar business in the world. Disclosure: I own thin film and Si based PV companies. I am very bullish on the entire sector. You will see some great buying ops in the next 6 months. CdTe is pretty chemically stable and is not a toxic problem as some uninformed people have reported. In the end all of the major players will remain in business ten years out. I'm expecting the business to produce over 300 GW's at the end of that time frame. JMHO