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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold and Silver Juniors, Mid-tiers and Producers -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gold$10k who wrote (59863)	6/5/2008 7:31:10 PM
From: LLCF	Respond to of 78404

Thanks, makes sense to me. You have to just sort of let the air out slowly. DAK

To: gold$10k who wrote (59863)	6/5/2008 9:43:44 PM
From: marcos	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78404

Wonder if Volcker thinks the business cycle is a thing of the past ... it's so tempting to believe that by gentle tweaking you can 'let the air out slowly', like DAK says, but is that possible, can it work enough to do the job of knocking back excess credit use and malinvestment? ... looks like it may be doing so now in US housing, without major widespread damage, a lot of air came out of financial stocks, maybe there isn't so much malinvestment left to clean up ... extreme energy costs are going to shake up north american lifestyles, remove a lot of value from suburban real estate, but the transition could turn out to be GDP-positive as it will involve investment elsewhere in transit and in increasing density nearer shops and work Some talk about a 'commodities bubble', but i don't believe it is, what we're seeing is genuine demand working on supply that was limited from many years of underinvestment ... imagine if all the cash that went to money heaven in the pets.com deal had instead been intelligently invested then in a copper mine - hoo-hah, megabucks, but it wasn't, so there is just not that much copper around If the business cycle turns out to be necessary, then extending the time periods between them will make their severity more intense, we get a real crash, just later that's all, but deep and hard, no work, people hungry, civil unrest, mobs in the streets? ... all this money going to banks who did stupid dodgy-mortgage and derivative stuff - you have to wonder what sort of message such bailouts really send to their management On the road i was thinking about the distinction between them regulating the money supply, and setting interest rates ... can't see how they can have very separate effects, for any length of time, because if you choke back money supply to any degree then bonds will tank, Libor et al rise? ... not that i have much of a grip on this stuff, tried to keep up with russ' thread in the early days, didn't ever really learn the terms and mechanisms involved ... but everybody who ever contributed to my own money supply in meaningful ways, by making purchases from me, was doing so with OPM, credit, and rates were crucial to their decisions, so it's hard not to see them related -g- Great chart - Message 24651548 That's the US dollar index - useful as leading indicator likely, but overall really i think it less important to us than usd/gold directly, also usd/silver, usd/copper etc ... maybe even more important are the metals in our own national currencies, for me loonies, and when PMs resume real moves against the euro then we'll know we're on a roll stockcharts.com stockcharts.com

To: gold$10k who wrote (59863)	6/29/2008 3:05:26 PM
From: gold$10k	Respond to of 78404

FWIW, the issue of Volcker/higher interest rates vs. gold is discussed here financialsense.com in the 1st hour beginning at 1:02