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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (35602)	6/10/2008 6:55:44 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 218345

Out of Iraq. USD skyrocket. Is that difficult to understand? Just stop spending in Afghanistan and Iraq for the economy's sake. I said; Best out come could have been pizza. It is time to order them. End all that in pizza. Pull troops back. Let Iraq sort themselves out. Oil will buy socila peace there and they go each others throats. the usual in tha part of the world.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (35602)	6/10/2008 12:29:46 PM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 218345

Last time the economy was OK and the Democrats had a very uninspiring candidate (Kerry) with no executive experience and they almost won. This time around the economy is terrible and the Democrats have an inspiring candidate (though some are prejudiced against him). Also no executive experience. On that basis the Democratic candidate should win easily. Though McCain has some pluses... but hard to distinguish himself from Bush I think at this stage. Prediction markets put Obama with twice the probability of McCain winning last time I looked. It's amazing really that despite all this there is still reasonable doubt about who will win.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (35602)	6/16/2008 12:13:26 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 218345

US election : Right now, About a 60% chance for John McCain, and 40% for Barrack Obama. Some factors - Tactical & Campaign experience - John McCain doesn't have much in the way of past mistakes, or extreme comments. Lots of dirt was throw at him when he was going against GW Bush in the Republican primaries. Barrack Obama has strange statements and controverial associates (leftist bomb makers, extreme preachers, dodgy real estate developers) And he is just a little tone deaf about some of his statements - like the one about small towns full of economically backward people clinging to their Bible and guns. So I think Obama or his wife might make another couple of faux pas before election day. Taxes - John McCain will raise taxes a little. Barack Obama will raise taxes a lot, and play soak the rich, soak the oil companies, etc. The length of the campaign - It has been long enough so that many white people will have gone beyond voting for Obama to show themselves they are not racist, to looking at the actual issues and experience. On this Obama does not look as good as John McCain. Conservative black commentators will start attacking Obama after the nomination. Shifting demographics - The Hispanic votes (not plural ) are up for grabs, and McCain has some appeal for them. Obama maybe seen as threatening, both becuase of his liberalism and the preception that blacks would get preferences over hispanics. This is one of the biggest blocks in play. The war issue - Obama's biggest plus, and risky for McCain. IF John McCain can put a little distance between himself and the disastorous GW Bush policies, he has a very good chance of winning. John McCain is sort of a mainstream semi-liberal Rebuplican - his views on most issues are close to or sound close to the actual center of most voters. Barrack Obama is strongly left, which helps raise money, and get dedicated campaign workers, but is a strong negative for about 30% of the voters, and a mild negative for another 25-30% of the voters. If McCain can have Obama seen as a 'leftist', there goes 55% of the vote and the election. So Obama needs to be friendly, charismatic, and avoid specifics and a number of hard issues. Obama is the stealth left candidate, he needs to keep his leftist positions hidden. McCain was the stealth moderate canadidate, to get the Rebuplican nomination, he had to pretend to be much more right wing than he is. It is a long time until election day, and the media may print the truth after they run out of more interesting stories. I expect that somewhere along the line, Obama will say something that sound okay to his Havard left wing friends, but that shocks most Americans. Something like "Americans have no rights to so many cars" or some soak the rich argument. After that, he will be luck to carry 10 of the 50 states. We a Rebublican McCain in the Whitehouse, and a Democratic Congress.