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Strategies & Market Trends : Longer-Term Market Trends -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (897)	6/11/2008 5:58:41 PM
From: skinowski	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3209

So far the bear ride was scary and hard. No bells ringing... as you like to say, AA - it was the hard right edge. Easy to get hurt. I've seen much easier turns over the years - with more obvious formations, more convincing sentiment extremes. But not this time around. There is no point in thinking about a possibility of a serious bullish reversal until 1475 gets taken out. If the late May - early June highs (in the low 1400's) are gone - that would mean that the bearish case is likely lost. Big pic -- the multi-year SPX support trendline was broken in early January. Then, we had a a test of the break in March - May. More recently, in the upclose, we saw a fairly clear impulse down on the hourly from the May 19 top, followed by a consolidation -- and then, by this latest leg down. According to one of the counts on the chart below (few days old) we may be finishing or maybe even (nearly?) finished that Wave 3 (or C) from May 19 (the main count, not the "ALT"). Or, it may keep subdividing. In the former scenario, we are probably due for a bounce soon.