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Strategies & Market Trends : Longer-Term Market Trends -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: morokko65 who wrote (905)	6/11/2008 5:52:46 PM
From: AllansAlias	Respond to of 3209

Hard sentiment (i.e., not surveys, which I count as "soft") is mixed. Some things look bullish, some don't. My two primary data points are $VIX and $CPC (CBOE put/call). The thing to remember is this: If a trend is in place, then these indicators become far less useful, except at really bad extremes. They stay pegged fairy high in down trends and fairly low in up trend. The $CPC is not looking too worried. Notice that it, and its 20 day moving average are still in the "not worried" area. It was actually more "worried" in May, which I find extraordinary, Heck, the 20 day MA is about where it was in November. I am NOT saying this "indicates" more down. I depend on TA and Elliott here to tell me if the down trend is intact. I am only saying that it is not in any way warning me to book shorts.

To: morokko65 who wrote (905)	6/11/2008 6:00:59 PM
From: Johnny_Blaze_420	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3209

rules were tightened but i don't believe ALL assets and deriviates are marked to market yet, specifically all level 3 assets. the bigger issue the higher capital required due to MBIA and Ambac downgrades. I believe that is why you are seeing a run on the BKX the last 4-5 days, specifically the undercapitlized banks and the smaller regional and nationals. In regards to LEH, not only is LEH probably next in line, the options market have been pricing this in for at least 2-3 weeks. Just this week i believe, they opened the market for strike prices below 17.50. Stock was at 31+ last week. With 2 weeks to expiration, those options only get opened if the exchange is pressed with demand for them. Same thing happened with BSC when it fell and I believe that happened the weekend before op-ex and they all cleaned up over the weekend.