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To: John Carragher who wrote (254023)	6/12/2008 11:57:05 AM
From: TimF	Respond to of 793841

I already know the official government estimate is single digit cents per gallon. I'm saying I don't think its accurate. Also see - "Released Date: September 2002" And some of the specific points in the page indicate its talking about past events as future events, so the paper is rather obsolete. Also the paper/site itself shows how prices can be increase by a lot more than 5 cents. " Tight petroleum markets existed during 2000 and 2001. With low inventories, other factors such as the change to cleaner Phase II gasoline (as required under the Clean Air Act Amendments) and refinery outages resulted in large price swings, particularly in the Midwest and California. During 2002, world petroleum markets loosened, and inventories returned to more normal levels during the first half of the year, due in part to slowing economic growth and demand falloff immediately following the September 11 terrorists attacks. However, while normal markets with higher inventory cushions reduce the probability of rapid price runups, California has had some problems even during normal market conditions, due to its unique gasoline specifications (CaRFG), limited refining capacity, and geographic isolation from other refining centers. Generally, the impact of boutique fuels on price varies with volumes, distance from supply sources, and number of supply sources, which in turn, depend on the degree of product differentiation (Appendix B). The size and duration of a price runup is influenced by the size of the suppy/demand imbalance and the speed with which the imbalance can be resolved. The speed of resolution depends on the availability of nearby supply such as inventories or refiners able to provide the product. The geographic "island" natuer of distinct fuel types means they can't borrow from their neighbors when supplies run short. They must wait for supplies to arrive from more distant supply sources, delaying response time. If the fuel is difficult to produce, fewer suppliers will be available to respond when a problem occurs. More fuel types generally also mean lower inventories for a given number of tanks, and inventories can run low on one fuel type, but not appear low in total across all fuel types." "suppy" and "natuer" are the pages own spellings, not mine, the paragraphs contained in quotes are from that eia.doe.gov page that you linked to.