Bonner,
And now over to Bill Bonner in Coutomer, France:
Finally, Americans are getting some relief. They no longer have to carry the whole world economy on their shoulders... But we’ll come back to this....
First, a look at Wall Street.
The Dow tumbled more than 200 points yesterday. Oil rose $5. The euro rose against the dollar – to $.155. Gold shot up $11. And the yield on the 10-year note fell to 4.07%.
No biggie.
So, let’s go to today’s two top stories: The first from Bloomberg: “China exports unexpectedly grow 28%.”
And this from the Wall Street Journal : “Global inflation’s bite worsens.”
What is going on? The world economy is supposed to be slowing down. Inflation rates should be going down, not up. China’s exports too – they should be falling, not increasing.
D-E-C-O-U-P-L-I-N-G say the pundits.
The widespread view is that the emerging markets are separating – at least partially – from the developed markets. America cools...but China’s tiger economy burns bright. And not just China. India...Russia...Brazil...and dozens of other emerging economies are on the prowl. India’s exports are increasing even faster than China’s – up 32% at last count.
Is it possible?
Well, yes...and no. Some emerging markets produce stuff for the developed countries. Some produce stuff for themselves and other emerging markets.
Here, we defer to colleague Manraaj Singh, who follows the emerging markets for a living: “...[With] all the talk of a global economic slowdown, China is still booming. Its economy grew by a white-hot 10.6% in the first quarter of this year. And that’s despite all the efforts of the Beijing government to slow things down...
“So, the commodity-rich Asian countries that supply China’s industrial machine, like Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand, are surviving the global economic downturn well enough. In fact, they’re seeing exports boom...
“But not every Asian country is benefiting. The Asian countries that rely on electronics shipments for the bulk of their exports, like Singapore and the Philippines, are being hit by the US slowdown.
“Just look at the figures. This week, Malaysia announced a 21% jump in exports in April from a year earlier. What are they selling to the rest of the world? Let’s see...palm oil exports are up by 71%, crude oil exports by 53% and exports of natural gas by 26%. Electronic-component exports were up by just 12.5%. The electronics industry used to be the crown jewel of Malaysia’s export industry. And most of those components used to go to the U.S. We’re seeing a massive shift in the centre of economic gravity here.
“Same thing in Thailand. The country’s exports jumped 28% from a year earlier. And a good part of that comes down to the soaring prices of rice and other agricultural products. “Indonesia’s monthly exports have just hit a new record of $11.9 billion in March, as well. No prizes for guessing what they’ve been selling...crude palm oil (Indonesia is the world’s biggest producer), natural gas, timber, coal...
“Coal is the new gold. And Indonesia has some of the most exciting coal companies on the planet.” If these economies can continue growing at this pace, perhaps they will spare the United States a serious correction. American consumers will finally be able to relax. The whole world economy will no longer rest on their backs. Someone else can do the hard work of consuming.
While exports from India and China are increasing, the U.S. trade balance is actually improving. From a negative $150 billion in 1995, America’s trade deficit grew to more than $700 billion in 2006. The latest figures show it finally contracting – towards $600 billion. But you can look at these numbers in a variety of ways. As mentioned above, it means Americans no longer have to do all the work of consuming. Now, others will have to take a turn.
Another way to look at it, though, is that Americans will get less of the world’s output. This is a trend you can bet on, dear reader. Americans have earned a disproportionate share of the world’s income...and spent even more...for a very long time. Now, the average American earns less...and is beginning to spend less. His standard of living – compared to the rest of the world – is going down. Like it or not, he’s going to have to live with less energy...probably with a smaller car...probably with a downsized house...and probably with less money to spend.
Still another way to look at it is this: the world’s money machine is slowing down. When Americans cut back, they export fewer dollars abroad. You’ll remember how the global financial system works, dear reader. The U.S. emits dollars. Other central banks have to buy up the dollars, by emitting their own currencies. The effect is a global tide of paper money – none of it backed by anything other than faith – which has caused bubbles in dotcoms, housing, finance, and most recently, in commodities. It has also left huge piles of dollars in the exporting countries. By some estimates, this money, invested through Sovereign Wealth funds, has held up the U.S. stock market for the last six months.
Now, the rising price of oil and the falling price of housing are forcing the U.S. consumer to ease off. He buys fewer exports and less oil. The U.S. trade deficit goes down. Foreign central banks have fewer dollars to buy up...and less need to print their own money to buy it with. Implication: less currency in circulation...lower commodity and consumer prices...a stronger dollar...fewer bubbles and declining asset prices.
But as we explained, the U.S. consumer is no longer carrying the whole world economy on his shoulders. Now, Indians...Chinese...Russians and Brazilians seem to be picking up the load. It’s their turn to buy automobiles, air-conditioners and filet mignon. It’s their turn to keep the factory wheels turning...and the currency printing presses hot.
*** How are we doing?
So far this year, dollar-based investors have lost about 7% from the decline of the buck. As of the end of last month, they were down another 5% or so on stocks. Equities, in practically all the world’s regions are down for 2008...only Japan is ahead, and just barely.
Looking at a longer term, U.S. stocks have gone up at only a 2.5% rate for the entire last 10 years. Europe did a little better – up 4.3% per year. But emerging markets have done much better – up 12.3%. And some of the emerging markets did spectacularly well – with Russia as one of the top performers with annual returns over 23%.
*** What are we doing with our own money?
We have no secrets here at The Daily Reckoning . When we have some real money, we prefer to invest it in the only business we know anything about – publishing. We’d rather take a long shot in a business we understand than buy a “sure thing” in one we don’t.
Recently, for example, we invested in a publishing business in India. And we’re starting a financial magazine in France. Not only do we have a fair chance of making money, we also learn something – which, in the long run, may be even more valuable.
But when we have some loose change, what do we do with it? When we looked at our account last week, we decided to make some adjustments. Readers should be aware, however, that we invest for a very long time. We have no intention of drawing on this money for the next 10 years.
First, we divided it into four parts. The first quarter we put in gold – for all the reasons you have read about here. Then, the next quarter we put into natural resources – with a smart, long-term-oriented manager who will avoid buying at the top. Commodities may be in bubble, but after the bubble bursts, there will be some good opportunities. Another quarter is invested in non-U.S., Warren Buffett-style stocks. Since most of our family assets are invested in the financial publishing business in the United States, we look upon this as diversification, managed by a trusted friend.
Finally, the last quarter is invested in emerging markets – with an emphasis on Vietnam and India. We don’t know what the future will bring, but our guess is that these emerging markets will do better than the United States in the ten years ahead.
Until tomorrow,
Bill Bonner The Daily Reckoning |
