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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ChanceIs who wrote (102798)	6/13/2008 2:55:29 PM
From: Paul Kern	Respond to of 206087

So for those looking for the next great shorting opportunity developed through government sponsored, wishful thinking based, silver-bullet-for-the-energy-crisis machinations, let me introduce you to the solar sector. Already I am hearing "overbuilt," "commodity pricing,," etc: Short TAN and short the whole sector at once.

To: ChanceIs who wrote (102798)	6/13/2008 2:56:29 PM
From: CommanderCricket	Respond to of 206087

Chance, Was thinking along those lines myself. The margins in any type of manufacturing just suck. IMO Solar will have the same margins associated with electronic components and assemblies. Anything above a few percent net is pushing it. Look at the contract manufacturers for guidance. Any of them still around and growing? Celestica, Solectron, Flextronics, etc... these companies chew through capital and would be willing to bet are quoting on building many of these solar assemblies. Jabil is now Vietnam looking for cheaper labor - geez.... Will start looking at your posts and doing my homework.

To: ChanceIs who wrote (102798)	6/13/2008 7:36:56 PM
From: Archie Meeties	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206087

Face it man, coal is going to get it ass kicked by solar. -g- I haven't added any to any solar plays since the February swoon. I just sold AXTI because I think it's margins are going to be hurt by having its manufacturing base in China (that's a strange twist). I do think you and CC are right though, at some point the margins on the manufacturers are going to collapse, but that point isn't now. As you do your dd you'll probably find a good case for the opposite in the short term. Good luck with round two of shorting FSLR. Your first entry point a few months ago was pretty good iirc. Some answers regarding margin and valuations here. greenecon.net