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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Dan Fleuris who wrote (75680)6/13/2008 4:29:21 PM
From: inaflash  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 213181
 
Maybe I'm missing something, but what difference does it make if Apple gets an up front subsidy or an ongoing portion of the revenues? It would seem to me that it only affects when they get the money and how the accounting recognizes it. At the end of the day, it should be a simple comparison taking into account projected phone lifetimes, the cost of capital etc. The party to whom the issue is critical is AT&T and the main issue for them is how effectively the marketing strategy ties the phone to the carrier. After all, not many people are going to pay double carrier fees (AT&T's mandated service + whomever they switch to after unlocking.) If Apple gets the same cash (when costed out) in the form of a subsidy that they would normally have expected to get through revenue sharing, it should work to their advantage that fewer phones will be unlocked and their cash/shared revenue thus lost, unless consumers are so unwilling to go with AT&T (or the preferred carrier in their country) that they don't purchase at all.
Or am I just restating the obvious?
Dan

It matters if you pay attention to things like EPS. I came across an article that reports EPS going down $0.03 because the new pricing. My understanding is that it will accelerate initial cash received and should up the EPS, but what do I know?

Net, net, I think the new arrangement REDUCES the expected amount Apple will receive from AT&T sales. I think the 24 month contract period will be a wash, but the residuals from revenue sharing would have gone beyond the 24 month period in a small percentage of contracts. On the benefit side, I think Apple gets the subsidy up front (bird in the hand), while ATT carries the risk/benefit of the post contract period.

Some of the new gray areas that impact partnerships will involve the iPhone software store, visual voicemail and MobileMe. Going back to traditional lines is simpler, but fails to align the partners with a common incentive. Now ATT doesn't have an incentive to push the iPhone over other smartphones and Apple has no incentives to keep exclusivity to any one carrier in any market.



To: Dan Fleuris who wrote (75680)6/13/2008 5:43:42 PM
From: pyslent  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 213181
 
Maybe I'm missing something, but what difference does it make if Apple gets an up front subsidy or an ongoing portion of the revenues?

The customer is now getting the subsidy, whereas Apple got the revenue sharing. Assuming Apple is selling the hardware for the same price they are receiving far less revenue from each sale with the loss the revenue share arrangement.