Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Longer-Term Market Trends -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: skinowski who wrote (949)	6/14/2008 11:08:32 PM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3209

Off to the eastern edge of North America tomorrow morning for a week of holidays. Hope everyone has a safe and prosperous week. In reviewing things today, I can see some continued s-t strength early next week to work off the obviously oversold condition in the smaller timeframes, but I am convinced that, in the end, the March lows will be tested and, on many charts, will not hold. I will stick with my short stop of SPX 1376, per the June 11 post. I think the trend is still down from this past Autumn. With any significant up move next week (i.e., rise of >3%), some important charts will be very difficult to read, from an Elliott point of view. Many of them will just read like jello on the dailies -- no clear down or up count. Still, I look back at the rise out of the Jan/Mar lows and I see what looks to me like distribution. The breadth is not good at all for such a rise. While sentiment is mixed, the moving averages of hard indicators, such as the $VIX and $CPC do not strike me as "worried", given how many charts have fallen more than 50% off the May highs. On the TA-side, if we continue to bounce, I would suggest that one follows the back-tests of the broken up-channels, vis a vis the rises out of the Jan/Mar lows. It would be a very bullish development if price were to rise back into these channels. As regards these broken up-channels, there are too many charts to list, but they include all the index charts (Dow, SPX, Nasdaq, mid-caps, ...). For example, we saw Friday the mid-caps back-testing the up-channel from its Mar low -- the up-channel it broke down out of earlier this past week. From an Elliott pov, basis daily, we see a number of charts with potential impulsive counts to the downside. Many of them sport a down-up-down right now, which could mean they were just corrections and we head higher. In order to maintain a strong down count, any rise should not violate the low of the first down, of such down-up-down charts. In Elliott terms, in a 5-wave down move, we should not see a putative 4th wave up violate the low of the putative 1st wave down. $TRAN is an example of this: from the high on June 5, we see that down-up-down look. Any rise here should not go up past 5249 or it is a warning to the bears. Cheers