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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: THE ANT who wrote (35826)	6/16/2008 4:44:02 PM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 217501

Calibrating and Fine tuning required. The early the better.

To: THE ANT who wrote (35826)	6/19/2008 1:03:25 PM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 217501

Brazil to Speed Pace of Rate Increases, Barclays Says (Update2) By Katia Cortes and Fabio Alves June 19 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil's central bank will accelerate the pace of interest rate increases starting next month as inflation will probably surpass its target range later this year, Barclays Capital said. Policy makers will raise the benchmark interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point twice to 13.75 percent by the end of September after two half-point increases this year, Barclays economists said in an e-mailed report. Previously they forecast half-point increases. Brazilian inflation will peak at 6.6 percent in November before ending the year at 6.4 percent as food prices climb and domestic demand expands, Barclays said. The central bank targets inflation of 4.5 percent, plus or minus two percentage points. ``This scenario calls for a stronger monetary policy response and more front-loading,'' the report said. Central bank director of monetary policy Mario Gomes Toros said today in New York that the 2009 inflation forecasts are ``well anchored.'' ``Although we've seen a deterioration in current inflation numbers, the inflation forecasts for 2009 show that inflation expectations in the medium term are reasonably well anchored,'' he told a conference today in New York. Barclays expects another two half-point rate increases in October and December, putting the so-called Selic rate at 14.75 percent at the end of the year. Their forecast for the July meeting is higher than the estimate for a half-point increase in a central bank survey of about 100 economists released this week. Central bank President Henrique Meirelles said yesterday in an interview with Bloomberg Television in Sao Paulo the central bank ``is alert and ready to act'' to cool consumer spending and rein in inflation. Food Weighting Inflation may slow to 4.63 percent at the end of 2009 from 5.58 percent in May, according to the same central bank survey. In 2008, consumer prices will rise 5.8 percent, the survey showed. ``Inflation in Brazil hasn't quickened as fast as most emerging market countries because food costs have a lower weighting in our consumer price indexes,'' Toros said. Food accounts for 21.1 percent of Brazil's IPCA index, compared with 33 percent in China and 22.7 percent in Mexico, Toros said. An increase in Brazilian imports has also helped keep inflation under control, Toros said. Imports grew 56 percent in May from a year earlier as a 33 percent gain in the Brazilian currency since the beginning of 2007 made imported goods cheaper. `Challenge' The real rose to a new nine-year high on speculation the central bank will further increase interest rates. The real rose 0.2 percent to 1.603 per dollar at 12:53 p.m. New York time, from 1.6063 per dollar yesterday. Brazil and other countries now face a challenge keeping inflation in check because of higher food costs fueled by rising commodity prices, Toros said. ``The response of monetary policy authorities in Brazil to these challenges was to raise rates,'' Toros said. To contact the reporters on this story: Katia Cortes in Brasilia at at kcortes@bloomberg.net; Fabio Alves in New York at falves3@bloomberg.net