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To: profile_14 who wrote (103022)6/17/2008 7:49:08 AM
From: Bearcatbob  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 206104
 
I too have a position in DUG and lightened some of my E&Ps. I am a bit ahead in DUG and wishing I still had the sold E&Ps.

Bob



To: profile_14 who wrote (103022)6/17/2008 10:08:08 AM
From: Fiscally Conservative  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 206104
 
Is not DUG also associated with the NG players and since NG is rising in price would this not more than offset any decline(however short lived or not)in Oil. It makes sense that DUG will continue to test its lower trading range and possibly set new lows in the coming weeks.



To: profile_14 who wrote (103022)6/17/2008 12:43:01 PM
From: XoFruitCake  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 206104
 
" am and have been long DUG since Mid April. Overall this has been a money-losing short for me despite all the trading I have done around it. I still believe it will move upwards. Oil seems to be in a topping mode"

Are you betting against oil price or oil/ng stocks price? This is the components of the Dow Jones Oil and NG index which DUG is supposed to be 2x inverse...

finance.yahoo.com



To: profile_14 who wrote (103022)6/17/2008 1:35:15 PM
From: chowder  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 206104
 
In looking at your chart of OIH, it confirms the negative money flows you speak of. All this means, up to this point, and that could change in the coming days, is that there is a lack of buying. We aren't seeing any selling to speak of.

Since this recent formation over the past 4 or 5 weeks is coming after a nice Stage 2 uptrend, we are currently in a Stage 3 consolidation phase.

From here we can either go into another Stage 2 uptrend, or we can experience a Stage 4 down trend.

I wait and see which way price moves above the high of the 5 week formation or below the low of the 5 week formation before doing anything. As long as price stays in this recent price consolidation range I'll sit tight.

When you have a strong upward price movement, it is bullish when price consolidates sideways, "above the 10 week moving average," while selling volume remains below average. We are seeing this currently.

Normally when we guess at the price move, our positions are smaller. So, even if we are correct, we don't get the full impact of the price move. When I wait for price to break, I jump in with a full position, and sometimes an overweight position. Therefore the impact to the portfolio is greater even though the percentage is smaller because I didn't catch the exact top or bottom.