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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gregor_us who wrote (130890)	6/27/2008 8:31:00 AM
From: DebtBomb	Respond to of 306849

"Over the next four years, we are likely to witness the greatest mass exodus of vehicles off America’s highways in history. By 2012, there should be some 10 million fewer vehicles on American roadways than there are today—a decline that dwarfs all previous adjustments including those during the two OPEC oil shocks (see pages 4-8). Many of those in the exit lane will be low income Americans from households earning less than $25,000 per year. Incredibly, over 10 million of those American households own more than one car. Soon they won’t own any." I believe this to be pretty accurate. First we'll go down to one car per household like back in the 60's, then some won't have any.

To: gregor_us who wrote (130890)	6/27/2008 10:10:34 AM
From: zebra4o1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

What really got to me when I lived in LA was how much money and resources the automobile-based system eats up. First, some huge percentage of the land area is covered with asphalt as roads or parking lots. Could it be 20% of the urban area? Then, think how much money it takes for each family to buy, maintain and fuel two cars ($10+ K per year?). Then all the time wasted in traffic jams. And the constant smell of auto exhaust. Inland sections of LA are almost uninhabitable because of the air quality. The whole system seems absurdly inefficient and dysfunctional - even at $20 per barrel oil. On the bright side, these massive resources being spent maintaining the auto-based transportation system, could some day be redirected toward public transportation. Also, LA is very fluid and flexible. The place might be able to transform itself more rapidly than one would think.

To: gregor_us who wrote (130890)	6/27/2008 10:15:39 AM
From: 10K a day	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

That was excellent. 43 recs! Message 24594674

To: gregor_us who wrote (130890)	6/27/2008 10:02:05 PM
From: Man on the moon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Hi Gregor, there is no doubt that anyone who saw these price levels coming several years back, were dead on target and most likely under target. I congratulate them, even though more than 80% surely didn't think we would be at $140 by now. The USA needed a good kick in the ass so as to be able to finish what they never started in the 70's. And regarding this irresponsible (in my opinion) note written by CIBC, written by somebody who probably is a lot smarter than me on these topics, I am amazed that they are not putting two and two together. Demand is ALREADY reducing. Things are changing. Not just in the USA but in many countries. People can only take so much pain, and they only have so much money to spend. If I am not mistaken, the CIBC note assumes that no changes have been made, that people must now start making changes in their habits. Of course it is a long process, and there are many changes to make, but IT HAS STARTED. What is wrong with this picture? But, like I said, I am fairly sure that what has contributed far more to this price of $140, is the fact that traders are buying, selling, shorting, and buying to cover future contracts without TAKING DELIVERY and on BORROWED money (margin). If the governments don't step in right now and put a halt to that with commodities and oil, the very things we need to live on, it is going to be a much slower decline of oil price, but I still feel it will decline from here, after maybe a pop or two up more maybe. Thanks for that CIBC note. What a joke.