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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (80232)	6/29/2008 12:56:43 PM
From: Kailash	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Interesting. If you look at the pattern of the bear in 2000-2002, you see an interesting parallel in April-September 2001. The bounce from early April lows peaked on May 18, and then drifted down without any significant recovery into a brutal fall from September 14 to 21, followed by a sharp and long-lasting bounce. Distance traveled was 1128 to 1292 to 966. In comparison we had March 14 lows at 1288 and May 16 highs at 1425. Instead of the nice and sharp drop and recovery that I was suggesting we could get in the next five or so trading days, this analogy suggests we may get nothing very tradable until the fall. I was surprised your model sees the bottom as early as late August, but it suggests this analogy. As for the coming week, if Thursday's employment numbers are bad, there's not a lot of room for your scenario of a 1266 to 1310 bounce. It would need to squeeze into a drop on Monday and a 44-point recovery on Tuesday-Wednesday. That's starting to look quite plausible. Kailash