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To: Paul Senior who wrote (104149)	7/1/2008 1:36:22 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Respond to of 206323

That is a different matter from the issue of whether stock splits affect the stock price more than the mathematical ratio involved, and if a speculator can anticipate and benefit from the stock split announcement and delivery. i don't think stock splits per se affect stock price in a predictably exploitable (profitable) manner. that doesn't mean stocks which tend to split don't also tend to go down (although in raising the example of DELL, you just mention its last split while leaving out the many, many splits before it). also, it may be that investors' attitudes towards splits change over time. e.g., during the tech bubble, there were a lot of retail investors who were easily excited by splits. maybe investors didn't get as excited back in the 70s or 80s, or even today. stocks do not split randomly. if they did, we would be able to test whether the split itself somehow causes subsequent underperformance. no, the stocks which split are a fairly select group. they are stocks which have been going up more than the average stock, usually because there is good news of some sort. stocks that go up more than average tend to mean-revert, so it is not surprising that splits may be associated with underperformance in some cases. this does not mean the split causes the underperformance. as to your speculation about whether "a speculator can anticipate and benefit from the stock split announcement and delivery": this probably isn't what you had in mind, but if you can consistently anticipate stock splits sufficiently far in advance (e.g., six months), you may become richer than Buffett. you have a money machine. of course, this is the same as saying you can anticipate which companies will outperform expectations, causing their stock price to rise and leading to a stock split six months down the road. since nobody can do that, i think the next best thing is to become a guru about stock splits: a stock split newsletter, or a hedge fund if one has the right connections. i seem to recall there were stock split beeper services advertised on CNBS back in the day. if one can get enough landed gentry to believe one knows what one is doing, perhaps it's not too farfetched to imagine a backyard gymnasium and ice rink and bowling alley and fine art museum, like certain famous hedge fund manglers whose photos are not in wide circulation. what a great country we live in: if you have an excellent idea, you're just a Pet Rock's throw away from striking it rich.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (104149)	7/1/2008 1:42:53 PM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206323

Vallourec French maker of steel tubes for the oil and gas industry. Deutsche Bank Holds 9.6% Of Vallourec. Vallourec's international drive continued into the second half of the 1990s, notably with the entry into the South American market and the construction of two factories in Brazil dedicated to the production of seamless tubes for the automotive industry. The company also entered China, forming the Changzhou Valinox Great Wall Welded Tube Co. Ltd. joint venture in 1996. Petrobras counting with them to produce tubes for sub salt oil extraction.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (104149)	7/1/2008 1:49:44 PM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206323

Vallourec and Petrobas develop oil tubes SAINTE-SAULVE, France, April 23 (Reuters) - Steel tube maker Vallourec (VLLP.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) is working with Petrobras (PETR4.SA: Quote, Profile, Research) to develop tubes for two new offshore oilfields in Brazil, Vallourec's chief executive said on Wednesday. Vallourec will help Brazilian state-controlled oil copmany Petrobas to see what kind of tubes are best for the new fields, Vallourec CEO Pierre Verluca said at an opening ceremony of a new continuous casting line, without giving more details. Etienne Bertrand, Vallourec's director of investor relations, told Reuters that Vallourec's business was brisk but the company, like all European firms, was suffering from the effects of a weak dollar. Higher raw material prices were also eroding margins because of fixed-price contracts, meaning there was a delay of a few months before the price increases could be passed onto clients, Betrand said. (Reporting by Marcel Michelson; Editing by Quentin Bryar) uk.reuters.com Last Year<b/> Vallourec Surges On Russian Bid Hopes Hopes that France's Vallourec would be gobbled up by a metal-hungry Russia were revived on Monday, following a report that a billionaire oligarch was set to launch a takeover bid for the steel-tube maker in the next two weeks. forbes.com