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Strategies & Market Trends : Longer-Term Market Trends -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (1203)	7/2/2008 11:59:51 AM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3209

Some of the coal plays may be better shorts w/oil potentially falling and prospects for Obama presidency. Unless he screws up his campaign the economy should be worse by fall which should favor a "fresh" face. If Obama is against oil sands can't see how he'll benefit coal (again perception). If oil comes down hard and soon then McCain may have a decent chance. I wouldn't put money on that bet though. On your point #5, a Dollar rise would be hurt commodities - I'm guessing just a typo. Deflation would also help the Dollar as would an overall global recession. Dollar still a safe haven (at least ST). Your read is very similar to mine overall. Gold's recent rise may be one last ST hurrah now that oil is truly going parabolic. However, I do think there's something to be said about inflation/dollar/oil money going incrementally into gold given the threat of oversight/congressional changes to the oil market. While I continue to have some ST worries about gold LT still going much, much higher. I've also been scaling back into some gold positions in case I'm wrong and we blow straight thru old highs.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (1203)	7/2/2008 5:18:22 PM
From: NOW	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3209

imo since our economy reflects a behavioral problem perhaps we can view where we are in this downturn in terms of changing behaviors to get our way out of the mess. in that sense i would guess we are past the sage of Precontemplation and entering Contemplation. People are aware that a problem exists and are seriously thinking about overcoming it but have not yet made a commitment to take action. That leaves Preparation,action and then and Maintenance before the economy turns around. we have a long ways to go.