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Strategies & Market Trends : Longer-Term Market Trends -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (1208)	7/2/2008 12:44:00 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3209

$RUT - This is actually the origin of that line; that slope is almost 15% (!!!!). It dates back over 20 years, the whole secular bull: `BC

To: AllansAlias who wrote (1208)	7/2/2008 6:29:37 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3209

I see the potential for a bounce here to produce another leg up in your "2/B", but I think it would require some extremely unlikely things to happen. Like the DJIA would have to get back above 11750. Otherwise, it would require nearly 15% bounce in $RUT occurring with less than 5% bounce in DJIA. That would be one heckuva divergence. So, I favor your "blue" scenario: bounce here in a minor wave "2" before everything blows through the March lows in wave "3/C" of "3/C". I've been trying to assemble a scenario whereby nontech blows to new lows to set a spooky "B" bottom with tech forming a double-bottom at the March lows (a variation on your other, aqua-colored count), but I keep getting caught up in the need for tech to go up an unlikely amount to complete a "C". Perhaps if nontech turned the wave "2/B" into a running correction. Regardless, it is challenging to see a correction of similar degree to the March-May eight week rally. While the market feels very oversold here an susceptible to a severe short-covering rally, I have a whole lot of respect for a) the overhead resistance and b)the trend. As much as I'd like to cover, I suppose I'm going to just sit still. Gulp... `BC