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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Mullens who wrote (78298)	7/4/2008 12:18:43 PM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 197014

WRT 3G handset sales (ev-do + 3GSM Units are sometimes a nice proxy for growth, but they can be misleading. In particular, as WCDMA moves from a high-end technology to the mass market, unit volumes are going to explode but ASP's are going to drop dramatically. With respect to Q's total addressable market, the key question is the growth of overall handset revenues. I believe that the current estimates are that the market will be flat YoY in dollar terms and that is even with all of the buzz about smartphones. Of course, I dont believe that number includes data cards or modules so that does provide a bit of incremental growth for connected devices....but we are still talking about a very small number, likely less than 5% in terms of revenue. There will be more connected devices coming on-line, but the overall numbers are so large that I very much doubt that we are going to see any sort of inflection point upwards in growth. Q's market is going to expand as the 3G market goes from 50% of overall revenues to closer to 80-90%, but after that they are going to be limited by the terminal growth rate for device revenues....which is far below the kinds of numbers that your posts imply. Slacker

To: Jim Mullens who wrote (78298)	7/4/2008 2:58:45 PM
From: engineer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 197014

the 2G may be getting close to the S curve, but the 3G side is nowhere near it. Interesting enough, unless the 3G really gets a ton more saturation and alot more BW usage, the real "need" for LTE may be dimished. Only when the networks get the density of GSM 2G running for 3G will the need for the LTE bandwidth justify the costs. Only places where the LTE will be justified is in large metro areas. All the rest of the places will survive for years on 3G data. Just my humble opinion...