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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Mullens who wrote (78304)	7/4/2008 4:56:34 PM
From: rkral	Respond to of 197016

"The Q's part of the handset mkt fortunately is the sweet spot- 3G, smart phones & not GSM /2G, nor "...overall handset revenues"." After GSM/2G phones having already slid quite far down the price curve, do you really expect their prices to fall faster than 3G phones?

To: Jim Mullens who wrote (78304)	7/4/2008 6:02:46 PM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 197016

The Q's part of the handset mkt fortunately is the sweet spot- 3G, smart phones & not GSM /2G, nor "...overall handset revenues". and the growth of that sweet spot is what is keeping the overall TAM from falling. I tried to avoid it, but I guess I'll put some numbers into the post. This really is just a matter of the law of large numbers hitting the handset market in general and Qualcomm in particular. Q's current market consists of all the various CDMA devices sold each year. The current estimates are a for a 503 million device market with an ASP of around $217. That results in a market of $110.6 billion. Q's total addressable market is the market for all devices connected to the cellular network. That market currently consists of handsets plus data cards plus modules. The recent CSFB report estimated the handset market at $159.2 billion this year. Add in another 30 million devices (which is likely generous) to account for data cards and modules selling at an ASP of $150 (also generous) and you get another $4.5 billion in revenue. So, Q's current market is $110.6 billion, and the ultimate size of Q's addressable market is $163.7 billion. These are the key numbers if you are looking at Q's future growth....not worldwide 3G subs or units. There will be another year or two of good growth within the CDMA market but we arent far from a growth rate that will be barely above the growth in the overall market (which is flat for handsets and barely growing at sub 5% for all connected devices). Posting from lax awaiting plane tire change. I hope your wait was short and your vacation is long :-). Slacker