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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: engineer who wrote (78306)7/4/2008 6:28:16 PM
From: qinvestor  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 197015
 
Hi Engineer - I can completely respect your point of view, but are the net of any of the projects going on inside of QC going to add to earnings? More importantly, does QC have control over 4G as it does over 3G. Most of what I hear and understand is the answer to both of these questions is NO.

Many (if not most) of these projects will be lucky to recoup their initial investments, ie Mirasol and their potential addressable markets. Sanjay once told us that the largest LCD manufacturer had a total mkt cap of only $8B. I could make very similar arguements for many of the other projects. Even if one of these ideas is a hit, it is likely to be too small to make a significant difference from a earnings point of view.

4G is NOT controlled by QC. QC has significant contributions, but many of those inside of the standards bodies would tell you that QC does not have the kind of control or contribution that it did for 3G. IJ brilliantly outmaneuvered the 2G industry and brought QC's heavily patented CDMA technology as the 3G technology choice. This is not the case with 4G. Meanwhile the 3G base of royalties is slowly becoming compromised.

IMHO - I think QC lost control of 3G when the EU decided to create their own flavor of CDMA, ie WCDMA and they started to drive the technology roadmap for 3G. Over time, this created a situation that is very difficult to introduce technology contributions to and have significant royalties revenue. The same is true for 4G.

So, with this being the case, why not have a financial type running the company, (ie Tony Thornley). And IMO, most of the technology excellence in the chip arena is due to Sanjay Jha. Most inside of QC do not question Sanjay's brilliance in creating QC's chip leadership.