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Strategies & Market Trends : Longer-Term Market Trends -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Perspective who wrote (1282)	7/4/2008 6:02:11 PM
From: Galirayo	Respond to of 3209

I'm not sure why you'd be scared .. when you start looking at the ROI Comparison to the SPX or INDU. If it wasn't such a Global Inflation Hedge .. I'd agree with you. Inflation is a bit .. how to say .. Rampant in some other Major Countries. stockcharts.com stockcharts.com stockcharts.com[s67200086]&disp=P

To: Perspective who wrote (1282)	7/4/2008 8:07:11 PM
From: SwampDogg	Respond to of 3209

This is where strict EW has its faults. There are 2 main interpretations of the current count in gold. One is very bullish right now and one is bearish IT but bullish LT. As gold is currently in a ST uptrend there is no issue staying long until that ST uptrend is broken. Having a bias that the market is going to go into a 'c' down when gold is pointing higher does not tend to make one money. The fact is that the bearish count in gold can not be ruled out until there are a clear 5 waves up off the last low and gold could be @ $1200 by then (not very practical) The other point would be that even if one held on to long positions in gold and rode out the move to $750ish one would still make money in the next few months anyway. This is certainly not a situation where one should be "scared" unless one was on margin. As the volume is high on this break higher and major miners have done well staying long is the way to go at least until we have trend break lower. Bearish thoughts are strictly imaginary at this point. Volume + trend + EW = LT bull market trumps just a IT EW possibility. This was the case last Fall when all did not believe the break to new highs. To be successful in the market EW is a little icing on the cake after trend and volume. To put it on its own or out in front is useless and dangerous. It does not let the market tell one what it wants to do. EW is like golf, once you learn to count (swing) forget about it and let is come naturally. Don't force it or you will put shank in the woods.