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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (81116)	7/7/2008 10:37:59 AM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

Interesting. My work suggests we'll see $160/bbl in August, then drop into the fall. $60 is too low. There is extremely strong support at $85 and $80 if we drop as he suggests, which I do not anticipate. The WTIC chart would need to get a more parabolic arc to it to collapse as he suggests. That would mean it would need to get to more like $200/bbl, although that's not my preferred.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (81116)	7/7/2008 10:42:51 AM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Surprised you didn't comment on this from Hussman: In short, inflation results from an increase in the marginal utility of goods and services, relative to the marginal utility of money. It can reflect supply constraints, unsatisfied demand, excessive growth of government liabilities, or a reduction in the willingness of people to hold those liabilities. Apart from commodity prices, which may take a bit longer to reverse, the pressures on marginal utilities are presently on the disinflationary side.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (81116)	7/7/2008 3:09:41 PM
From: Proud Deplorable	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

How often have these guys been wrong assuming that speculators are responsible for price action? I don't buy it. I don't care who this Horseman is he has lost all credibility by making a call like this. I'd almost sell everything I own for a chance to bet it against this call. (60.00) But I do agree with him on this and he should have trashed the rest of his article and just wrote this "While stocks are certainly oversold on a short-term basis, we don't presently observe features that have historically accompanied good opportunities to accept speculative risk." He doesn't understand the term paradigm shift. What's laughable is that these establishment types root for the system to continue on so their predictions can make them heroes but the population doesn't buy into this crap anymore. The times they are a changin and the first one now better not be last getting out.