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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (9606)	7/7/2008 1:43:27 PM
From: nspolar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Thoughts but only thoughts. I revert to Mr. Pitera and encourage him to comment, as he is the currency expert. My main thought is that the dollar is but one currency in a fixed basket of currencies. Thus it is not free and does not stand alone ... it competes vis a vis others. This is unlike gold, pm stocks, crude or other issues we gamble (speculate) on. This in itself is a vast difference to take into consideration. Thus if the dollar is any kind of currency with staying power, in a comparative sense it should do exactly as it is doing here .... show strength in time of excessive system stress. This does not mean I am a dollar bull. Per "The Chart" shown many posts back I think it rises for some time here, will exceed 90 and may even push 100. But it will be a choppy mess up, only to an intermediatet top, before it falls again. Beyond the next dollar top is where the fun will really start. If the chart is anywhere on path gold will explode and do its best in the 2017 to 2025 area. I also think it will explode up from somewhere around the 1000 level. As such there will be plenty of money in basemetals and select pm issues to be made before 2017, well before then. I have made some LT projections for a 3rd wave top on the HUI, and I get something in the vicinity of 1500, 2020 plus. We gots a long ways to go here, whether your talking dollar or gold. But the dollar ain't going anywhere near zero. What will happen is that the gold to dollar ratio will literally explode. It is now making its final pull back, for a long long time. I also think we need some fundamental event(s) of sorts to set all of this in real progress. I think this is it right here. This is the last retrenchment in gold, and as the system melts down folk on a global basis are going to remember and lose total trust in paper money. What is really scary to think about is the LT 'rate' chart. I will probably be dead when it happens, but they will go to new highs someday. How the economy can function in this type of situation is beyond me. That is my current view, which is no better than 50/50 for being right or wrong.