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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (9610)	7/7/2008 2:48:04 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Keep in mind that the DUG ETF is based on the stock prices of Oil Companies. It is not directly tied to the price of oil. Oil prices could deviate from DUG's trend if the market believes that the stocks (which make up DUG) are ahead of themselves or due to fall for other reasons. Likewise, Oil prices could back off and DUG could continue to fall if the market stays bullish on the oil stocks. I would not use DUG to short crude. It should be used to short oil stocks, not oil itself, imo.

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (9610)	7/7/2008 4:47:12 PM
From: nspolar	Respond to of 33421

Hawk, that scenario is way down the road. Too far to worry about here and now. DUG is by no means a keeper, just a place to hopefully make some mullah in the interim. Go with the flow. I doubt any issue is a keeper for me in the real longterm, in particular commodities. In part due to my age. But in the longterm sense you bring up an interesting point. If you go back some posts you will see I have oil doing a downwave in here, with yet another wave to go. That chart is in my present opinion is not correct w/r to the minute details, but in the longer term sense it could well be, i.e. the 1 and 3 peak labels. So how long might a crude oil '4' correction take here, in total? And with that another thought I have is that gold brings up the tail end of the real inflationary move yet in front of us. And I suspect that it (gold) will be in the midst of its most powerful segment (well above 2000), after oil has topped. So in brief yes, oil has another strong move up left, following a decent correction here. As recently as a few weeks ago I thought oil might retrace to 60 bucks, but now no, I doubt it. 100 maybe. And I do think 200 is in the cards, down the road a fair spell yet. What about silver? Does it follow gold or precede, or roughly go in sync? Anyone have any thoughts on this issue? It does have some importance for me, on my next tranch of pm buys. I think maybe it has been in a fake-out of sorts, and I think it will precede gold to a limited extent (w/r to waves up). Follow the CDE! More on that later maybe, as things develop.