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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (9618)	7/7/2008 8:53:49 PM
From: nspolar	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 33421

This is a real shit storm, eh John? About in the 3rd inning or so? I dunno. We have credit issues and more credit issues. Driving risk aversion the wrong way, for current conditions. Then we have commodities (basics) at moon high prices. Diesel here is about 5.5 per gallon. Was talking with my Dad the other day, he said you couldn't give a diesel PU away where he lives, and he lives in good PU country. Read diesel PU sales are way down here in AK as well. GM and Ford ain't doing too hot, with their big diesel burners at the moment, so it would seem. How about a Hummer anyone? Not too far over the horizon we will have folk purchasing winter fuel. I am already thinking about it. For us it is only 2.5 months away. The fireweed is in good bloom, already. Some things gotta give somewhere, maybe everywhere. But by damn I'm telling ya, I ain't giving up my PC. I don't care how many electrons it chews up. I'll ride a bicycle, walk, go hungry, go w/o TV, but I ain't giving up The Net. I likes to stay connected, in a solitary way. And low and behold, tech has been fairly resilient here imho. Look and think beyond (talk to the hand). John, you more than anyone I know you started beating the bushes early on this financial situation we have. Let us know when it is winding down. That should precede lows in all the rest. Well time to go pick some weeks. Gotta keep my cabbages growing, for Mama and Baby moose. TF

To: John Pitera who wrote (9618)	7/8/2008 2:58:32 AM
From: Stoctrash	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

To: Les H who wrote (132087) 7/6/2008 1:22:57 PM From: Les H 1 Recommendation of 132251 The fog of credit DEFAULT swaps iht.com

To: John Pitera who wrote (9618)	7/8/2008 3:03:11 AM
From: Stoctrash	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Merrill may write down about $6 bln in Q2: Citigroup Monday July 7, 10:04 am ET biz.yahoo.com (Reuters) - Merrill Lynch & Co (NYSE:MER - News) may write down about $6 billion in the second quarter primarily driven by losses on high-grade collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) positions and monoline exposure, said analyst Prashant Bhatia at Citigroup. ADVERTISEMENT Bhatia, who now has the highest second-quarter writedown estimate for Merrill among brokers, also forecast a second quarter loss for the quarter and widened his 2008 loss per share view. He said the writedown estimate for the second quarter comprised of $4.8 billion on super senior CDO long positions, offset by roughly $2 billion of gains on short positions with non-monoline counterparties and $2.2 billion on credit valuation adjustments related to financial guarantors. "We estimate $500 million of marks on subprime whole loans, $300 million on private equity positions, and $200 million on debt revaluation," Bhatia said in his note dated July 6, which highlighted the second quarter preview for Merrill. Bhatia also forecast a second quarter loss of $3.95 at Merrill, and widened his 2008 loss per share estimate to $6 from $1. He cut his price target on the stock to $65 from $75, while rating it a "buy." Shares of Merrill rose 1.5 percent to $31.59 in morning trade on the New York Stock Exchange. Bhatia said Merrill has raised $600 million more capital than it has lost since 2007 and that a sale of the company's stake in BlackRock Inc (NYSE:BLK - News) could generate more than $2.5 billion in capital. Bhatia believes Merrill would most likely sell a portion of its stake in order to avoid raising capital and further diluting its investors. Merrill, the world's largest brokerage, has a nearly 50 percent stake in money manager BlackRock. Merrill Lynch's stake in BlackRock currently has a market value of roughly $11 billion, Bhatia noted. (Reporting by Ramya Dilip in Bangalore; Editing by Bernard Orr)