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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: THE ANT who wrote (36746)	7/9/2008 10:13:10 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217700

also, sure glad oil has tanked to 137, from south of 100 :0) and gold got drubbed to 928, from 800 ;0) recommendation: hoardeverythingondips :0)

To: THE ANT who wrote (36746)	7/9/2008 5:18:59 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217700

just in in-tray on money issuance i suspect that Congress dealt those digits a grave blow when it blocked the takeovers of ports by the Dubai port authority and the takeover of Unocal by CNOOC. this was like telling those overseas holders: 'no, these things are not an unrestricted claim on US assets at all; they are only a claim on the stuff we explicitly allow' (which in this case is mostly another class of IOUs, treasury debt). on commodity hoarding restrictions an action that is bound to backfire badly, and not only for the reasons we have already discussed. when a government tries to restrict people from defending their assets against the inflationary depredations of the state (see e.g. Vietnam's recent gold import ban for a similar example), then it's like an admission that the inflationary policy is deliberate and intended to remain in force. this could well become the 'tipping point' from whence the devaluation of the money unit gets out of all semblance of control. however, the travails of the banking system are a strong countervailing force - they keep both the demand for money high as well as putting a cap on money supply and credit expansion. otoh, the central bank can in theory monetize anything - as Greenspan reminded us in one of his testimonies a few years back. and Bernanke i believe mentioned the printing press at some point, and assured us that he could always keep inflation going if he put his mind to it. we should probably believe him. :) on gold my opinion: all moves gold makes between 850 and 945 are nothing but noise. the trend will declare itself once one of those levels is broken (with the usual caveats). to me the fact that gold has been consolidating in corrective looking fashion above the 1980 high of 850 for almost 6 months is a bullish sign. note also, what gold does is not dependent on what other commodities do. they often correlate, but there are large leads and lags involved. gold may well rally while other types of commodities correct. on oil & speculation speculators are now net long crude again after the non-reportables have been blown out of their previous record net short position last week, but the entire net long position of specs amounts to only 18,400 contracts out of open interest of over 1,2 m. contracts overall. in other words, the net bullish positioning of speculators currently amounts to only 1,5% of total open interest in the crude oil contracts. that isn't much.