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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (31428)	7/10/2008 9:49:09 AM
From: Grommit	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78708

Taxes. I bought a ton of HRP this morning, so that I can sell my more expensive shares in a month and take the tax loss. Seems like I have the chance to do this for quite a few REITs lately and will certainly cycle through the process over the next months.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (31428)	8/17/2008 2:46:17 AM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78708

BP- I am suprised you sold BP. I am still holding my shares. Granted, the company has been an underperformer but selling now? My oil exposure is pretty small, so i am thinking about upping my exposure here. i am looking at the following list> I am looking at lower risk position as a portfolio anchor. BP - the underperforming company in big oil and the TNK-BP disaster does not help either- if the new management can get BP's ROA numbers back to industry standards the stock would be a winner. Nice dividend yield RDS-A. They also had problems dating back to reserve accounting problems but now a slowly improving.N Cheap and a decent dividend yield. Strength in integrated NG. COP. Cheap but balance sheet not as strong as most peers. They overpaid for BR (IMO) in 2006. Dividend yield is below average. Some oil sand exposure TOT. Maybe my favorite. Best LT track record. Cheap. Above average production growth prospects. PCZ: relatively small Canadian integrated. Strong balance sheet but they struggled to increase production in recent years. Oil sands exposure but I was disappointed by the low expected ROA (mid teens @100$/barrel) projected from those ventures. SU: pure oils sands play and looks relatively expensive but is about to double production. SU has the most leverage to crude prices, for the better or the worse. As i read my own musing, i think TOT is my favorite from the group. It is sort of amazing that the stocks of the supermajors have not benefited from the crude runup but are not being shot with the recent fall. The smaller and more leveraged players (SU and others have quite a run but they vulnerable to lower crude prices since their production costs have shot up quite a bit over the last few years. I think the supermajors will handle lower crude prices very well and the current stock prices look like bargains.