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Technology Stocks : Novellus -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: etchmeister who wrote (3715)	7/10/2008 2:41:40 PM
From: gugie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3813

"The move to copper will have losers and winners or it just might be a wash: just to illustrate in case AMAT has the Al etch business as well as Al deposition business they are going to loose two major applications. On the other hand AMAT will probably get new business: copper CMP" First cut is AMAT has a net loss as % of $'s in fab. Dep and Etch tool loss will exceed Cu CMP gain. If they get the Cu seed tools (Ta/TaN/Cu) that might be closer. NVLS has a niche market for Al dep in Korea, so if they change to AMAT, that would be an AMAT win. On the other hand, both NVLS and AMAT can relatively easily modify Al dep for Cu, add chambers, etc. if a fab is doing a conversion, and if they're satisfied with incumbent performance, it would be cheaper to do so. On the NVLS side, it's pretty much the opposite of the AMAT analysis. So if the analyst would just go and put numbers into my quickie post here, one could make a better informed decision of how Cu transition benefits/hurts each company.