Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : 50% Gains Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tom pope who wrote (61796)	7/11/2008 6:22:14 PM
From: Dale Baker	Respond to of 118717

Miller hasn't learned the first rule of holes, to stop digging once you realize you are in one. Granted, his fund is too huge to jump around easily, but steps like diversifying and not having blind faith in stocks that are crashing is a start. I know I am not a genius because I am still in the red for the year, in low double digits. But I am matching or beating a lot of supposedly wise value managers, which makes me wonder about them or me, I'm not sure which. And I dug out of my deficit to the market indexes, which is always the basic test.

To: tom pope who wrote (61796)	7/11/2008 7:56:18 PM
From: Keith Feral	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 118717

Money managers always lose all their gains in the long term since they all wait for their style to crash. All they want to do is ride all the up cycles and down cycles and charge 1 or 2% a year. We saw this happen with the tech funds in 2000, and we'll see it again with the commodity funds in 2010. None of the money managers have ever seen a market where they didn't want to be fully invested. The problem with the monolines, gse's and banks is they are all upside down in equity. Things got worse when the FED decided to play cute with interest rates, which forced all the banks to abandon 30 year fixed mortgages to go sell interest only loans. Then, the FED got even dumber by jacking up rates to start the foreclosure process as rates reset too quickly. Now, we just have to wait for everything to fall apart while we watch oil prices shoot to $150. Nothing but pain for the money managers. I suppose all the tech managers were adding to CSCO on the way down in 2000. It came back for a few years from the lows, but it has a 10 year return near zero. I hope it's that easy for the banks over the next 10 years. It would be groovy if they can just survive and pay their dividends, without defaulting on any bonds. That's when the government would be forced to do a bailout.