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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: THE ANT who wrote (81380)	7/15/2008 4:11:37 PM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 116555

People tend to look to countries, under the perspective that only a few have the right DNA. No matter what they won't grow. I reached that conclusion and was very pessimist about Brazil. I realize now because I never ever have seen capital applied to a country. (Nigeria circa 1983 doesn't count. Once I notice the capital coming in I looked to the results. I started trying to see what was at work. Then I applied my theory of the "set of circumstances". Given a certain set of circumstances economies behave in a certain manner. IT WORKED! It is structural. Not cyclical. Late 90's: Demographics. The Demographic window has nothing to do with capital. No capital pull out. (IMF put USD30 billion for Brazil if it needed and USD45 billion for Mexico) Oil was cheap and the fast recovery of Asia post melt down. Jim Rogers must have seen this and that is the reason he was seeing commodities will be the rage. He just saw Asian coming back and plot their consumption, seeing the meltdown as only an intermezzo. I only woke up for real 2004 after being outside Brazil for 27 months. For the past 3 years everything has been according to the set of circumstances. Therefore, we can plot the next two decades under the perspective that it is going to be simply more of the same. How about the situation of the past year, you'll be asking. That has nothing to do with emerging markets. This is simply the pains of the OECD countries trying to adapt to the rebalancing.