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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (36993)	7/13/2008 6:23:25 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217740

Started with Proalcool. Think first where it came from. The country is a locomotive pulling a lot of empty wagons. This was 1970s. This picture has changed in the past 30 years as other wagons started having some economies. Focus on the locomotive only and disregard the rest. This is a complicated place. Whenever the country has to do something big, it has to rely in the locomotive -Sao Paulo state- to execute the project. The government looked to oil skyrocketing absorbed the 1973 but the 1979 aftershock was the coup de grace. The government engaged the locomotive S. Paulo in the effort. They had already run cars without gasoline run the industry with charcoal during the war. Why not again use what they had instead of oil. Thus Proalcool program started. We are a rural country. Our elites come from there. The rural elites know how to execute and know how to be treated serious and has had the power. US rural elite lost the civil war. That's why the US doesn't look like Brazil. Coffee and milk politics. Coffee Sao Paulo. Milk the cattle land of Minas Gerais. We had even a civil war when the elites were threatened. The US bribed Brazil with a refinery and a steel mill. 1929 Crash sending coffee plummeting and the "Brazil project" became INDUSTRY. Sao Paulo rural elite threatened revolted. Constitutionalist Revolution of 1932. Petrobras is industry. Ethanol is rural elite. This is the background of the place.

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (36993)	7/13/2008 6:49:29 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 217740

Still staying with officialdom, think the country as two officialdoms: one rural based. Another industry based. Industry-based elite vs. rural based elite. Petrobras is industry. Is nationalist. Likes closed economy and state-ownership. Rural elite is open to the outside world. They sell their agricultural products and import what they need. Industry side is: we produce everything here. ALWAYS read the news under this slant. PBR need rigs and ships built for pre-salt? Let's build them here. Proalcool, the ethanol project gave the rural elite another chance to 'save' the country. They had already given everything the country had: The economic cycles: Sugar cane, Coffee, natural rubber, leather... All based in the rural elite capacity to deliver. Industry had grown and rural elite would go to dust bin. More education, other wagons would carry load and S. Paulo power would wane. Proalcool gave once again had the chance to keep the power. Here comes ethanol. Auto industry would suffer without fuel. Industry engaged in ethanol and produced the first cars 100% ethanol powered. Sao Paulo sugar cane land delivered the ethanol. That lasted until 1986. Oil went down in 1986. PBR and industry revenge came. Gasoline prices went down and fleet of ethanol powered cars became very expensive to run. Industry went back to make gasoline cars. Now PBR was taking oil from off shore and delivering it. Industry and PBR plus nationalists took the "Brazil project" again. Industry resent the power of rural elites and always come back to beat them up any time they have a chance. Note those were 'Lost Decade' years. Little GDP growth neither so many cars. Gave PBR time to get the oil deep and deeper. Cut to late 1990's. Hyper-inflation out. Economy grew. Lots of cars. North Sea oil down. Libya and Iran out, Iraq blocked. And the world was not stopping consuming. Oil started to become scarce. Technology originated from Tech bubble make electronics dirty cheap. Cheap electronics make possible to put processor inside engine and mange it on the fly. That was the great coup of ethanol. Now you could sue gasoline and ethanol in any %, from 100% to 100% gasoline and anything in between. If you buy ethanol car and PBR dumps gasoline in the market, it won’t kill your fleet. You can just sue gasoline. Let’s see how long PBR can sell gasoline at loss to keep ethanol out. By them PBR was losing monopoly. Became a public company. Professionally managed and started losing its nationalist-monopolist cum closed economy pedigree. But Brazil was still importing Diesel. Our refineries are designed to produce more gasoline -with heavy crude- and fewer diesels. Country runs on top of trucks. Import bill? USD1.7 billion. Rural elite want that Diesel money too. Why not produce biodiesel and take that money -running through PBR pockets- and put it into the rural economy's pockets? Thus biodiesel project. All that is possible because the rural elite are in congress pushing their case. That's why I stared everything with the rural elite political power.

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (36993)	7/13/2008 7:11:22 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217740

The organic waste starts as feedstock. Feedstock starts with agricultural corn and soy. Let's see the whole cycle and the whole industry using the chicken as example. You put your animals as near as possible where the feedstock is planted to avoid the costs of transporting the food to the animals. Brazilians are very lazy people. Lazy people are very good at producing cheap stuff. They love the "law of the less effort" Once you have place there is cheap corn, you find cheap land and cheap manpower. Municipality, gives land free of charge, plus the road to the factory planned place and put the transformer for electricity, You pout factory there and municipality gets the taxes, and the jobs and economic growth that comes with the integrated chicken industry => corn field, feedstock processing and slaughter house. All in a very small area. Now you have to raise the chickens. You give the broiler to the guys in the area who have small property. Give him the design to build the chicken house. Give him the feed stock, the technical people who vaccinate the chicken against diseases. The guy has got only to act as what I call "chicken pimp": look that the chicken are OK. Feed give water, keep temperature right. Get paid for how many chicken they deliver at the right weight. First organic waste enters the scene: the manure of the chicken house is spread on the corn field where the corn grows. Chicken house is ready to more broilers. Nowhere in the world can anyone produce chicken as cheap as this.