'06 Democrats run from Obama:
Not All Dems Want To Ride Obama's Coattails--In Some Districts, Incumbents Seek Political Distance
By JUNE KRONHOLZ, Wall Street Journal, July 14 2008
Barack Obama could have long coattails this fall. That doesn't mean that every Democrat is going to want to grab on to them.
The Illinois senator is likely to spur voter turnout among African-Americans and college students in some districts where Democrats hope to pick up House seats now held by Republicans or to fend off Republican challenges. But other Democrats facing tough re-election campaigns could see Sen. Obama's politics and his weakness among working-class whites as a liability.
"Some of these Democrats are trying to walk a fine line" between courting black voters and holding on to whites, said Nathan Gonzales of the Rothenberg Report, a nonpartisan political handicapper. Democratic candidates may embrace, ignore or run away from Sen. Obama, or perhaps some of each, he added.
Meanwhile, vulnerable Republicans, many of whom are in closely divided or Democratic-leaning districts, could see John McCain, the Republican presidential candidate, as an asset because of his appeal to independents. If the Arizona senator runs a competitive presidential race, he "could provide air cover for our candidates" in what could otherwise be a difficult year for Republicans, said Rep. Tom Cole of Oklahoma, who heads the Republicans' House re-election campaign.
Operatives from both parties predict that there will be about 75 competitive House races in November. Among the most vulnerable are 26 freshman Democrats and one freshman Republican. But Republican retirements and several scandals have made dozens of other House districts fertile ground for Democratic candidates for the first time in years.
A few of those Democrats facing tough races already have signaled their ambivalence toward Sen. Obama, the Democratic candidate. Florida's Tim Mahoney, who won his West Palm Beach seat in 2006 after the district's long-serving Republican congressman resigned amid a congressional-page scandal, is "supportive" of Sen. Obama, the congressman's spokeswoman said.
But Rep. Mahoney hasn't endorsed him for president and isn't going to the convention, where he has a superdelegate vote, she added. "He's focused on work in the district."
Mississippi's Travis Childers, who won a special election this spring to fill a historically Republican House seat, "hasn't had time to be concerned with presidential politics" and won't be going to the Democratic convention, his spokesman said. A conservative advocacy group campaigned against him during the special election by trying to tie him to Sen. Obama and tax increases it said the two men are planning.
Rep. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, who heads the Democrats' House campaign committee, said he is telling many of the party's freshmen that "their constituents come first," and that they should spend time in their districts instead of at the convention in Denver.
But there may be more than busy schedules involved in some Democrats' reluctance to be associated with Sen. Obama. The party's most vulnerable House members took seats from Republicans in the 2006 Democratic wave. They now have to appeal to Republicans and independents to hold on to their jobs.
In that climate, "being an Obama cheerleader may not be an asset," Mr. Gonzales said.
The opposite is happening with Republicans, whose toughest races are in Democratic-leaning or closely divided districts. Nevada Republican Jon Porter, who represents a Democrat-friendly district in Las Vegas, supports Sen. McCain and will attend the Republican convention in St. Paul, Minn., even though he isn't a delegate, his spokesman said. Minnesota's Tim Walberg, the sole Republican House freshman, also supports the senator and may attend the convention, although he can't vote there, said his spokesman.
Sen. McCain "has a demonstrated appeal to the middle," Rep. Cole said. "He helps us change our image and recasts us as a maverick party interested in change."
Sen. Obama also may not be a help to Democratic candidates in white working-class and rural districts. New York Sen. Hillary Clinton won those voters by wide margins in primaries in Pennsylvania, New York, Michigan, Ohio and Kentucky. Democrats face tough re-election fights or have a chance to take seats away from Republicans in all of those states.
"Midwest freshmen probably would have been better off running with Clinton," said John Fortier, who writes about Congress for the conservative American Enterprise Institute.
But Sen. Obama's coattails could prove helpful in many other House races. Democrats are hoping the senator's appeal among college students will generate enough new-voter turnout to help them win an open seat in a Republican-leaning Columbus, Ohio, district that includes Ohio State University.
They also are counting on high African-American turnout to help Democratic candidates win seats that now are occupied by Republicans in eastern Virginia, central North Carolina, Chicago and Cincinnati. The party says that blacks account for 20% or more of the voting-age populations in those districts.
Sen. Obama additionally could shore up vulnerable Democratic incumbents, including some who seem wary of supporting him. In Georgia, Democrat Jim Marshall represents a solidly Republican rural district and typically neither endorses his party's candidate nor attends its conventions.
About 30% of his district's voting-age population is African-American, and high turnout among them could make his race easier, Democratic strategists say.
Democrats also are hoping that Sen. Obama's popularity among college-educated and upper-income whites will help the party in some white-collar districts now held by Republicans. Sen. Obama's coattails could be helpful to challenger Jim Himes in the Democratic-leaning Greenwich, Conn., district represented by Christopher Shays, a Republican. Political oddsmakers call the race a toss-up. |
