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To: tejek who wrote (398957)	7/15/2008 1:45:55 PM
From: average joe	Respond to of 1577886

Drilling, Not Earthquake, Caused Java Mud Volcano, Report Confirms ScienceDaily (June 10, 2008) — A mud volcano which has caused millions of dollars worth of damage was caused by the drilling of a gas exploration well, an international team of scientists has concluded. The two-year old mud volcano, Lusi, is still spewing huge volumes of mud and has displaced more than 30,000 people. The most detailed scientific analysis to date disproves the theory that an earthquake that happened two-days before the mud volcano erupted in East Java, Indonesia, was potentially to blame. The report by British, American and Indonesian and Australian scientists is published this week in the academic journal Earth and Planetary Science Letters. It outlines and analyses a detailed record of operational incidents on the drilling of a gas exploration well, Banjar-Panji-1. Lead author, Prof Richard Davies of Durham University, UK, published research in January 2007 which argued the drilling was most likely to blame for the eruption of the ‘Lusi’ mud volcano on May 29 2006. This theory was challenged by the company that drilled the well and some experts who argued that the Yogyakarta earthquake two days before the eruption, which had an epicentre 250km from the mud volcano, was the cause. Graduate student Maria Brumm and Prof Michael Manga of University of California, Berkeley undertook a systematic study to test the claims that the eruption was caused by this earthquake. They found that none of the ways earthquakes trigger eruptions could have played a role at Lusi. Prof Michael Manga, of University of California, Berkeley, said: “We have known for hundreds of years that earthquakes can trigger eruptions. In this case, the earthquake was simply too small and too far away.” The new report concludes the effect of the earthquake was minimal because the change in pressure underground due to the earthquake would have been tiny. Instead, scientists are “99 per cent” certain drilling operations were to blame. Prof Davies, of Durham University’s Centre for Research into Earth Energy Systems (CeREES) explained: “We show that the day before the mud volcano started there was a huge ‘kick’ in the well, which is an influx of fluid and gas into the wellbore. We show that after the kick the pressure in the well went beyond a critical level.” “This resulted in the leakage of the fluid from the well and the rock formations to the surface – a so called ‘underground blowout’. This fluid picked up mud during its accent and Lusi was born. He said chances of controlling this pressure would have been increased if there was more protective casing in the borehole. Prof Davies added: “We are more certain than ever that the Lusi mud volcano is an unnatural disaster and was triggered by drilling the Banjar-Panji-1 well.” Prof Manga added: “While this is a most unfortunate disaster, it will leave us with a better understanding of the birth, life and death of a volcano.” Lusi is still flowing at 100,000 cubic metres per day, enough to fill 53 Olympic swimming pools. Recent research which Prof Davies was involved in showed it is collapsing by up to three metres overnight and could subside to depths of more than 140 metres, having a significant environmental impact on the surrounding area for years to come. The well is operated by oil and gas company Lapindo Brantas, which has confirmed the published data is correct. sciencedaily.com

To: tejek who wrote (398957)	7/15/2008 1:54:31 PM
From: Brumar89	Respond to of 1577886

Did you know scientists drill through faults to study them? Building on more than 15 years of experience from the Parkfield Earthquake Experiment, the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the USGS started in June 2004 to drill a deep hole in order to install instruments directly within the San Andreas Fault Zone near the initiation point of previous magnitude 6 Parkfield earthquakes (drill hole location in relation to slip rate). These instruments, set 2 to 3 km beneath the Earth's surface, will form a San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth (SAFOD). This project will directly reveal, for the first time, the physical and chemical processes controlling earthquake generation within a seismically active fault. Drilling the hole for SAFOD starts west of the San Andreas Fault and then use advanced directional-drilling technology developed by the petroleum industry to angle the hole through the entire fault zone until relatively undisturbed rock is reached on the east side. earthquake.usgs.gov Deep-sea drilling expedition off Japan seeks earthquake, tsunami causes news.wisc.edu Scoggins Dam to undergo test-drilling for earthquake hazards blog.oregonlive.com/breakingnews/2008/06/scoggins_dam_to_undergo_testdr.html In the interest of fairness, I will disclose that drilling did apparently trigger a "mud volcano" on the Indonesian island of Java. Not an earthquake or a real volcano though. Report confirms drilling, not earthquake, caused Java mud volcano physorg.com spiegel.de The company involved is not a major oil or oil drilling firm but a local Indonesian driller.

To: tejek who wrote (398957)	7/15/2008 1:57:28 PM
From: average joe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1577886

Do you really think the USGS would risk triggering an earthquake? What do you have for brains... sponge cake? Getting inside an earthquake The fault extends almost the full length of California By Molly Bentley in Parkfield, California Geologists in the US have broken new ground in earthquake research. In the central California town of Parkfield, the self-professed "earthquake capital of the world", a research team led by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) has begun drilling a two kilometre pilot hole at the San Andreas Fault. It's like using a stethoscope and listening very, very carefully Dr Mark Zoback If all goes well, engineers will drill a second hole to penetrate the fault and establish the first earthquake observatory in an active fault zone. The drilling is part of a major earthquake project called the San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth (Safod), designed to collect unique data on the fundamental processes that cause earthquakes. Currently all seismic instruments sit on the Earth's surface or in shallow boreholes. By placing instruments in the heart of a fault zone, Stanford geologist and Safod principal investigator Mark Zoback says scientists can monitor earthquake activity up-close. Better prediction "It's like using a stethoscope," said Dr Zoback, "and listening very, very carefully." He and other scientists hope to determine what forces act on a fault before, during and after earthquakes. This includes chemical changes that might precipitate an earthquake, as well as physical stress. They would also like to know whether earthquakes are predictable. Currently, quake prediction is shaky. "There is no way reliably to provide short-term warning of earthquakes," Safod principal investigator and USGS geologist Stephen Hickman told BBC News Online. "There have been many more failures than successes." Currently, geologists can only provide 30-year "hazard estimations" of an earthquake occurring on a particular fault in a particular area, he added. Theory test So Safod scientists are slowly digging for answers. Hard granite limits the drilling to four or five metres an hour. When engineers finish the hole - as is expected by the month's end - they will collect data to guide another drilling into the fault itself. The drilling is awaiting further funding The second drilling awaits Congressional budget approval of Safod, expected in the autumn. If they get funding, geologists will penetrate the San Andreas Fault four kilometres beneath the Earth's surface and establish a subterranean seismic observatory. A range of seismometers will record the force of earthquake shake, while meters and sensors measure ground deformation and fluid pressure. Some scientists theorise that changes in fluid pressure may trigger earthquake slip. Hang on If true, there may be no better place than Parkfield to discover it. It has been an outpost of the USGS since geologists first bolted down seismometers there more than 20 years ago. The project could lead to better prediction The location is ideal. Parkfield sits on a particularly active section of the San Andreas Fault where the plates continuously "creep". As a result, Parkfield experiences small to moderate-sized quakes at regular intervals, which make for a "natural laboratory," according to Dr Hickman. But even in the best laboratories, serendipity plays a role. Parkfield's latest magnitude six earthquake, for which the town is famous, is overdue by about 10 years. The magnitude six quakes have occurred, on average, every 22 years since 1857. The next one was anticipated to take place within the time frame 1988 to 1993. Scientists hope the next one holds off a bit longer - until they have instruments in the ground to catch it. news.bbc.co.uk