Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (37177)	7/15/2008 6:09:13 PM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 217803

Roubini has been a serious bear ever since I have been reading him -and I have been reading him for about 4-5 years - but this is the most pessimistic I have ever seen him. All I can say is.....WOW!

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (37177)	7/15/2008 6:27:52 PM
From: chowder	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 217803

A lot of doom and gloom in that message. At least I don't have to worry about debt or a job. I'm still young enough to survive an 18 month crash. I can't do a 5 year crash though. Eventually, if the economy is to turn, the financials will have to turn too. I'm not sure when I'm going to play them, but play them I will. I'm just not sure which way I'll do it yet though. I'm not in a hurry. I'm not trying to time a bottom. I have no problem with waiting to see if any accumulation is going on before I enter. Thanks for the post.

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (37177)	7/15/2008 7:21:39 PM
From: KyrosL	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 217803

Roubini sounds a bit insane lately. Surprisingly (at least to me), the US has not yet recorded a negative growth quarter. Recession has not yet started, but he does not acknowledged this basic failure of his predictions. He ignores the substantial contribution to US GDP of the rapidly falling non-oil trade deficit. He ignores the key difference between now and the 70's 80's and 90's: very low real long term interest rates (actually negative). He ignores that real housing prices in the US (i.e inflation adjusted) are already down more than 20%, so at least 2/3 of the price adjustment is arguably behind us. He ignores globalization and the rise of China, and Asia in general as both a source of supply, demand, and huge productivity increases, making the world a radically different place than the seventies and eighties. He ignores the swelling of sovereign wealth funds that will provide huge demand for equities once the bear market bottoms.

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (37177)	9/18/2010 4:24:15 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217803

26 months after: "This will be a long, ugly and nasty U-shaped recession lasting 12 to 18 months, not the mild 6 month V-shaped recession that the delusional consensus expects." ELMAT: It's been is 26 months already "And a similar housing/asset/credit bubble is going bust in other countries – U.K., Spain, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, etc. – leading to a risk of a hard landing in these economies." But over time inflation will be the last problem that the Fed will have to face as a severe US recession and global slowdown will lead to a sharp reduction in inflationary pressures in the U.S.: slack in goods markets with demand falling below supply will reduce pricing power of firms; slack in labor markets with unemployment rising will reduce wage pressures and labor costs pressures; a fall in commodity prices of the order of 20-30% will further reduce inflationary pressure." ELMAT: He did not forecast decoupling, as emerging markets by passing Europe and US will proceed as if the crisis did not happen. "The Fed will have to cut the Fed Funds rate much more – as severe downside risks to growth and to financial stability will dominate any short-term upward inflationary pressures. Leaving aside the risk of a collapse of the US dollar given this easier monetary policy the Fed Funds rate may end up being closer to 0% than 1% by the end of this financial disaster and severe recession cycle."