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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: E_K_S who wrote (31503)	7/16/2008 1:46:00 AM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78530

Not so sure about CGM having value buys. A few maybe on some measures I use. More could be buys based on "themes"; not as value plays. Here's my opinion on CGM top 25 as we know them today: US Steel, Nucor. I've no opinion. American Mobile ([t]AMX[/t]). I have a few shares. Last added 7/9/08 @ 51.08 Arcelor Mittal. No opinion Washington Mutual. Sold awhile back. No opinion now Brazilian Petroleum Corporation or PBR. I have a full position. A hold for me. I'd not recommend it as a "value" buy for others. Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold ([t]FCX[/t]). 5/29/08 @$113.77 my latest add. I have only a few shares in total. Mosaic and Potash: I missed the fertilizer boom, and do not follow these stocks now. Southern Copper [t]PCU[/t]. I hold shares from 2005. No interest in adding now. Schlumberger [t]SLB[/t]. I hold a few shares bought from $98 to $77. Monsanto, Alcoa. No opinion. CGM has three Brazilian Banks - Itau, Bradesco, Unibanco. I chose only one for a play on Brazilian oil development prosperity. I can't remember why I chose [t]BBD[/t] over the others, but I have a moderate position. Last buy 3/08 @ $19.33. I'll add more if it drops on no adverse news. Devon: After no adds since 2005, I've upped my holdings this month to a full position. Most purchases 118-122. Latest and lowest price $107.08 7/8/08. In addition to the '09 forward p/e a little under 8x (Yahoo consenus est.), I like DVN for the Montney and Haynesville shale exposure. Weatherford. No opinion. Companhia Siderurgica Nacional SID. I missed this one. I like Brazilian related steel stocks for the buildout of PBR oil business and for Brazilian infrastructure. I'll have to look at this one again. Gerdau [t]GGB[/t] Added a little to my exploratory position 7/10/08 @$20.88. Again, Brazilian steel stock play. Vimpel. No opinion. Stock's come down. Might be worth a closer look now. Tuckcell. [t]TKC[/t] I have a small exploratory position bought at $19.38 (ouch) on 5/15/08. A prominent Turkish stock, and an okay play on growth of cell phone usage. Turkish stock market has killed many...small position and I'll be cautious on adding. Apache. A hold for me. (Position established in '06). I'd not add. No opinion on Mechel or Alum. Co. of China.

To: E_K_S who wrote (31503)	8/13/2008 11:43:08 AM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78530

Started small position in Gerdau S.A. (GGB) the South American steel producer. Pretty good Q2 2008 report. UPDATE 2-Gerdau 2nd-qtr profit soars 85 pct on strong sales reuters.com From the article:"...In Brazil, Gerdau's second-biggest market after North America, net revenue increased 47.5 percent, driven by robust demand from the construction and automobile industries. The company cut back on exports from its Brazilian operations to funnel more steel to the booming domestic market...." ========================================================== I am expecting continued growth in Brazil. The value proposition for me is low forward PE at 7, better than industry operating margins and located in large growth market. Negatives are high debt and the company would be impacted by slower world wide growth especially in North America. The company adds another sector of diversification to my other Brazil holdings. A stronger U.S. dollar would allow GGB to expand their domestic (South America) production where their operations are the most efficient and profitable. EKS