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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (81615)	7/16/2008 4:31:38 PM
From: ajtj99	Respond to of 116555

Much of Iraq is planning for the end game when civil war breaks out. Sadr is not going to deplete his army now when the big prize is waiting for him next year after a US troop drawdown. When they took out Saddam, civil war wasn't a matter of "if", but "when". That when happens when the US pulls out or substantially reduces its forces. The "success" of the "Surge" is actually nothing more than bribes paid to tribes to chill out and smart end game positioning by the insurgency in Iraq. The result will likely be a dictatorship friendly to Iran, and probably lots of problems for the Kurds, as they'll need to align with the Sunnis in endgame war.