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Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ecrire who wrote (10780)	7/16/2008 5:56:38 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 50093

re: ["There is nothing new in the inflation/deflation dichotomy"] Hey ecrire, We're going to have to agree to disagree on that one, because I think quite a lot is new. Semantics and academic nuances aside, what we are seeing is what I call "Stagflation 2.0." I think everyone can agree that we have rising inflation and a slowing economy vastly underperforming to its growth potential. But, we also have a deflationary asset collapse in housing, and financial instruments. And what else is different, and much more dangerous in this stagflationary period, is there is no wage/income rise accompanying inflation. Sadly, that's something the economists love to hang their hat on... all most celebrating the fact, in downplaying the ongoing threat of inflation. And to a degree, they are right. Falling real wages/income, and an existing "0" if not a negative savings rate, along with falling home prices (the average American's main asset) make this a very different environment than the 1970's. Throw in record deficits and unfunded liabilities, a dollar that already has collapsed, and a historic banking crisis that is vaporizing the equity capital of 100 year old firms right and left, and still threatening to collapse the global financial system, and I think its rather obvious, that we're in somewhat unchartered territory. And that's why the Fed is having such a difficult time righting the economic ship. Greenspan created a bubble so big, so complex, and one that infested global markets to such a degree, that Bernanke never really had a chance to do anything other than be at the helm when the ship finally started taking on water. One day, hopefully before his death, Greenspans legacy will be rewritten to expose him as the architect of the largest financial collapse in history. The POS should be hiding in exile in a Paraguayn jungle drinking malaria infested mosquito water, not sipping Cristal, and signing copies of his book at Manhattan dinner parties. SOTB

To: ecrire who wrote (10780)	7/16/2008 6:04:30 PM
From: surelockhomes	Respond to of 50093

>>The USDollar will continue to depreciate<< Against what? investorvillage.com By raising rates, EU has been setting up for more pronounced deflation longer term. It will be a race to lower rates towards zero soon. As far as housing deflation, they are in the same boat we are. Oil has a long way to drop. Inflation disappears. Most of the IBs are leveraging pigs and deserved to get slaughtered. But the well run main street banks should do well. It's not like people are going to stop using banks or barter using gold any time soon. I Hope :) As far as gold, maybe DZZ for a trade, as it will follow oil. Took DTO our for a spin this week. Nice 10% pop. It seems to work fine. If oil goes back anywhere close to 150 again, I'm going to take a position. The macro is about to crush oil soon. IMO The US is sitting on huge oil reserves in the form of conservation that dwarfs SA. And renewables are gaining momo. Remember Slider's USD 72 whisper number. It's been hanging out there for 4 months now. We'll see.

To: ecrire who wrote (10780)	7/16/2008 6:08:49 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Respond to of 50093

>>the Fed is willing to monetize all debt when deemed necessary. The USDollar will continue to depreciate (occasional rallies notwithstanding) and gold, despite volatility, will gain traction.<< Plus the Clowngress is throwing handfulls of money at housing (300 billion for the FHA), talking about another stimulus plan before the election, paying whatever it takes in Iraq (plus more in Afghanistan, where apparently the Taliban is not yet "pacified"). No deflation until after the election, at the earliest. Probably not then either, because the US sheeple won't tolerate any attempts to enforce self-control unless it comes from the outside (i.e, not from politicians or elected reps, but from our new Asian/Arabic overlords).