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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Andeveron who wrote (105293)	7/17/2008 7:42:54 PM
From: tom pope	Respond to of 206148

Another one of the crowd that KNOWS the future with absolute certainty, and calls everybody else rubes and dumb money (no vitriol, of course.)

To: Andeveron who wrote (105293)	7/17/2008 8:09:07 PM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum	Respond to of 206148

down ? sure... but 15 ? and flatline for a few years ? .. quite a call.. I'll bookmark ya.. a corollary to your post would be a prediction on the USD in that time frame. Got one ? EDIT: That would nail shut the green movement.. 15$ oil... wallets will win over GW I bet LOL

To: Andeveron who wrote (105293)	7/17/2008 8:12:43 PM
From: allevett	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206148

Please tell me the economics of who will be producing this crude at $15/bbl. Tar sands, offshore, deep water, arctic, ???

To: Andeveron who wrote (105293)	7/17/2008 8:50:56 PM
From: CommanderCricket	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206148

psss...Ande...pssss Listen up - Here's the deal. Your a smart guy, economist and all. Start buying up those Suburbans, Expeditions, Tahoe's and Hummers for $0.50 on the dollar. Plenty available if you look around. GM is offering $10k off the MSRP....they'll deal with you. Hell, you could buy the Hummer division cheap!! By Christmas when gasoline is back under $1.50 or so and the snow is flying, you'll make millions. really Don't tell anyone this tip came from me - ggg

To: Andeveron who wrote (105293)	7/17/2008 8:52:39 PM
From: Tommaso	Respond to of 206148

>>>>probably all the way back to $15 by 2011. Would you be so kind as to explain why, other than that you say so?

To: Andeveron who wrote (105293)	7/17/2008 8:52:57 PM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206148

Those are the components that form oil price: 1) Supply-demand 2) Artificial movers: Nigeria attack, Ahmadinejad declaration, Isreal sabber rattling, Chavez big mouth, Hurricane season, 3) Numbers game: US reserve popping up an down, Ghawar, Cantarell outputs 4) Money using oil as reserve currency i lieu of USD 5) USD printing 6) OPEC hiking/holding output Have you figured out ALL of them over 12 months (2009) and 3 years (2011)? The drop of the past couple of days were prompted by only two of those factors: a) the possibility of US demand destruction working. b) US starting direct talks with Iran. As oil gets to a certain USDxx will mean 6) kicks in creating a floor to the price.

To: Andeveron who wrote (105293)	7/17/2008 8:56:00 PM
From: chowder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206148

Any idea on when to load up on China again? I started pairing back to a full position several months ago when the charts confirmed your previous analysis on China. I'd be interested in your thoughts. Message 24056216 EDIT: Ooops, didn't realize at the time that you have a lot of messages ahead of mine. Take your time getting to me. I still want your take on China and am willing to wait for it.

To: Andeveron who wrote (105293)	7/17/2008 9:51:23 PM
From: JSB	Respond to of 206148

That's after we nuke India and China, right?

To: Andeveron who wrote (105293)	7/18/2008 1:33:51 AM
From: edward miller	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206148

I suggest you bookmark this post and look at it on the dates you recommend others look at your post. 1- You are running in the Moron-A-Thon (thanks to Steven Vita for that description of investors/suckers/chumps). 2- Since you are an economist by education I suspect you believe in reversion to mean for all commodities. In the energy market, reversion to mean believers are the dumb money talking. That means you economist types. 3- Believing in reversion to mean for crude oil means that you think the 30-year bear market in commodities will last FOREVER. Study history, and I mean more than the post WW2 era. No bear market lasts forever. Oil will never again hit $60 in your lifetime. You know nothing about the factors driving the price of crude oil. Ed

To: Andeveron who wrote (105293)	7/18/2008 8:16:01 AM
From: JakeStraw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206148

>>probably all the way back to $15 by 2011 After I stop chuckling about your bold prediction I'll respond...

To: Andeveron who wrote (105293)	7/18/2008 9:10:37 AM
From: ChanceIs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206148

>>>Oil's going way below $100/bbl. ... to $15 by 2011. <<< Ah well. I may as well pile on. I have lost track, but I believe that the historic average price for crude throughout the '90 was $25. It took absolutely phenomenal circumstances to drive it to $10 in 1998. I have a briefing on my hard drive presented by Adam Siemenski - chief energy economist at Deutsch Bank. He presented a statistical correlation between oil market price (x) and finding and development costs (y) and deduced a linear relation as: y = 2.62 X + 7.53 (in US dollars/bbl) Bottom line for this discussion is that he projects F&D costs in 2010 as $25/bbl. Then you throw in market supply and demand forces. Consider inflation. Germany reported 6.2% YTD this AM. The US government has been telling us that inflation has been running at about 2% for the decade. I would guess about 5%. So w/o compounding and based upon the historic average from the '90s we get to $37 minimum. In fact, demand/consumption is way up globally, and supply at best is flat and probably declining. I have trouble seeing crude below $100 again. Certainly not $80. Half of the world has woken up to the fact that Hubbert's Peak is real even if its date has not been decided. Oil is increasingly viewed as an investment or minimally as a hedge against inflation. (I would not include the US Congress is the half that has risen from slumber.) I welcome opposing opinions on this board. You certainly got fried - which is unusual for this very and unusually civil forum. Having said that, you walked into a buzz saw with your eyes wide open.

To: Andeveron who wrote (105293)	11/18/2008 6:26:08 AM
From: Dennis Roth	2 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206148

>> Oil's going way below $100/bbl. I'm targeting $60 by 2009 and probably all the way back to $15 by 2011. << So far, so good. But if the third part of your prediction rests on this theory, >> Peak oil is a myth. There's an ocean of oil underneath the crust that will never be exhausted. << Message 25123072 I'm afraid you're in for a big disappointment. Investment theory based on fraudulent pseudo science will lead to grief.