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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TH who wrote (9629)	7/18/2008 12:55:01 AM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 71475

I agree that inflation WAS in the pipeline. However, this credit bubble was SO HUGE that deflation will almost certainly overwhelm almost everything. Deflation is what's in the pipeline. The question becomes how much residual inflation do we have left before it becomes obvious. I don't have a good idea yet. US Fed policy (while dumb enough overall) is still smart enough to not print into oblivion. They'd prefer not to have deflation either, but if push comes to shove they'll settle for deflation if they can at least prepare for it. As for what's working and what's not working just because homebuilders and financials look washed out doesn't mean there aren't other things to short. Look around you'll find more than few. We're probably only 1/3 thru this bear market. Plenty of time to short selectively at key pts. Based on other stuff i've been reading/thinking while this recession will be bad in many respects I don't see the Dollar going away. It may still have another 50% down (probably at most), but I suspect that it'll happen at a slower rate than most expect going forward - mostly because most other fiats/countries have their own issues (or will when the US turns down harder). I'm not an EW guy by any means but it does appear that gold is in a primary Wave 3 at this pt. But what's not known is how where we are currently in subwave 2. Message 24768995 >> My point is that if I give up on gold now, then my belief in fundamental investing is at risk and possibly flawed. << Nope. Your timing could simply be off. Warner Buffet was how early calling tech stocks a bubble and refusing to buy. I think the Dollar holding up can still be explained best by denial and lack of good liquid alternatives. Again ST fundies don't always mean so much. Here's another one of my cracks at EW. It may help explain your confusion - along w/some many gold bugs - myself included. Message 24769084