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To: gregor_us who wrote (105439)7/19/2008 4:24:56 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor  Respond to of 206092
 
Of course, the other key thing about China is that their domestic production is negligible. They're the ELM inverted, someone needs to invent a "Consumption Land Model" to account for that kind of growth.<G>

8 MegaBPD and growing at double digit percentages annually...at that pace their imports will exceed the US's in what, about 6 years? THAT's gonna leave a mark!<NG>



To: gregor_us who wrote (105439)7/19/2008 6:45:45 PM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 206092
 
China is an interesting case... A few weeks ago I speculated here that the reduction in subsidies might not affect the demand to any great degree.... All those new cars coming on stream will not simply be parked for show and there was evidence that folks were willing to pay more for fuel if they could get it.. ... The fear there being Chinese laws against the sellers breaking the price cap..

Mark Mobius of Templeton recently speculated that Chinese demand was mitigated by industrial shutdowns for the Olympics.. a not insignificant transitory effect .. possibly.

The Black Swan